DCCCLXXXV - 885 DAYS A.A.
http://stihi.ru/2024/10/14/6486
Theory U & H. G. Wells - Future of Ai
«The War of The Mind - The War That Will End War” and more… (including Max More & Natasha Vita-More)
…
Веди меня
Сергей Полищук
http://stihi.ru/2009/07/08/1372
Веди меня долиной смертной тени
К горе благословений, о мой Бог
Под бременем пороков и сомнений
Я силы потерял и изнемог
Я на Твою поддержку уповаю
Роки моей прошу не отпусти
Я заслужил такую участь, знаю
Но ты меня по милости прости
...... ......
незакончен
...
Рецензии
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Ваша образованность , её разносторонность поражают . Буду образовываться на
вашей странице . Спасибо !
М . Левянт .
Майя Левянт 16.10.2024 04:58 • Заявить о нарушении / Удалить
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Сердечно благодарю за коментарий, на Вашей странице я много интересного нашёл для себя… с.п.
Сергей Полищук 16.10.2024 21:08 Заявить о нарушении / Удалить
...
© Copyright: Сергей Полищук, 2009
Свидетельство о публикации №109070801372
Список читателей / Версия для печати / Разместить анонс / Редактировать / Удалить
Другие произведения автора Сергей Полищук
Рецензии
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Прости,Господь,за всё,чем грешен и что грешу...
Что каждый шаг не взвешен,прости меня- прошу!
Это произведение невозможно закончить- мы грешим каждый день,
забывая о покаянии здесь и сейчас!
А когда осознаём,что опять вольно,
или невольно оступились,обращаемся к Небесам....
Удачи Вам и Божьего благословения,
Ната Ива2 14.10.2024 19:04 • Заявить о нарушении / Удалить
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Написать рецензию Написать личное сообщение Другие произведения автора Сергей Полищук
…
А/кро - стих
Д/ренохром
Я/не рождён был - между трёх столиц
Б/оГ так велел - быть из Владивостока
Л/юблю себя! То нежно - то жестоко
О/тверз Души - Всевидящее Око
К/огда бил лбом об пол и падал ниц
А/да блокаду ощутив в груди
Д/рево Лювби в аду хотел найти
А/Плод познания вымаливал у БоГа
Рецензия на «Акроотклики рецензии 44» (Николай 55)
А/кро - стих
Д/ренохром
Я/не рождён был - между трёх столиц
Б/оГ так велел - быть из Владивостока
Л/юблю себя! То нежно - то жестоко
О/тверз души - всевидящее око
К/огда бил лбом об пол и падал ниц
А/да блокаду ощутив в груди
Д/рево Лювби в аду хотел найти
А/Плод познания вымаливал у БоГа
Blessings to you your family and all your loved ones… с.п.
…
Адренохромная гипотеза патогенеза шизофрении
В 1952 году Джон Смитис и Гемфри Осмонд, основываясь на сходстве галлюцинаций, вызванных мескалином, с шизофреническими галлюцинациями, выдвинули гипотезу, что шизофрения может вызываться эндогенным галлюциногеном, названным ими М-фактором (мескалиноподобным фактором). Они также обратили внимание, что в некоторых случаях у пациентов, которым вводили адреналин, окрашенный продуктами окисления в розоватый цвет, возникали состояния, близкие к состояниям, индуцированным мескалином. Исходя из этих наблюдений и идентифицировав продукт окисления как адренохром, они сформулировали гипотезу патогенеза шизофрении как следствия аномального метаболизма адреналина с образованием адренохрома.
Также была высказана гипотеза, что эндогенный адренохром может участвовать в патогенезе шизофрении, однако причиной патологического состояния может являться не избыточный синтез адренохрома в организме, а генетически обусловленная недостаточность ферментаглутатион-S-трансферазы, участвующего в метаболизме адренохрома.
Исходя из этой гипотезы, Осмонд и Хофферпредложили лечить шизофрению очень большими дозами витамина C и витамина B;, приводящими к уменьшению адренохрома в головном мозге.
В настоящее время адренохромная гипотеза научно не признана. Фармаколог Александр Шульгин в книге PiHKAL писал, что адренохром не имеет никаких психоделических свойств. В начале 2000-х интерес к нему возобновился благодаря открытию того, что адренохром обычно вырабатывается как промежуточное звено в образовании нейромеланина.
Сергей Полищук 14.10.2024 17:49 • Заявить о нарушении / Редактировать / Удалить
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За неимением подходящих кактусов с мескалином, заменю его на наш привычный мухомор с мускарином. Шизофренический эффект есть, а шизофрении нет. Очень удобно.
:)))
Спасибо, Сергей за акро и познавательный фармокологический пост.
Николай 55 14.10.2024 18:03 Заявить о нарушении / Удалить
Рецензия на «Мой Питер» (Яфа Прим)
“И барышни в столице Милы, но не для нас… Еще по одной и пора назад…”
“Паломничество из Петербурга в Москву Святых Братьев Майка и БГ”
Благословений Вам Вашей Семье Родным и Близким… с.п. DCCCLXXXV
Сергей Полищук 14.10.2024 16:52 • Заявить о нарушении / Редактировать / Удалить
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Рецензия на «Письмо отшельника» (Эризн)
Благословений Вам Вашей Семье Родным и Близким… с.п.
Сергей Полищук 14.10.2024 14:54 • Заявить о нарушении / Редактировать / Удалить
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Рецензия на «Душе суждено...» (Анатолий Тимашов)
«Научите все народы, крестя их во имя Отца и Сына и Святого Духа» (Мф. 28:19)
Благословений Вам Вашей Семье Родным и Близким… с.п.
Сергей Полищук 14.10.2024 14:35 • Заявить о нарушении / Редактировать / Удалить
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Благодарю, Сергей! Взаимно и Вам всех благ!
Анатолий Тимашов 14.10.2024 14:42 Заявить о нарушении / Удалить
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Рецензия на «Кто главный» (Нинесе Гейсер 2)
Младенец))) Праправнучка))) или Праправнук)))
Благословений Вам Вашей Семье Родным и Близким))) с.п.
Сергей Полищук 14.10.2024 14:26 • Заявить о нарушении / Редактировать / Удалить
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Рецензия на «Владивосток» (Любовь Улуру)
36 лет не был во Владике, вспомнил Шамору, вспомнил как там рос, спасибо огромное…
Благословений Вам Вашей Семье Родным и Близким… с.п.
Сергей Полищук 14.10.2024 08:48 • Заявить о нарушении / Редактировать / Удалить
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Рецензия на «Помнишь меня в далеке далёком?» (Ирина Фетисова-Мюллерсон)
Blessings to You All Your Family and Loved Ones… с.п.
Сергей Полищук 14.10.2024 08:41 • Заявить о нарушении / Редактировать / Удалить
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Same to you, dear. God bless you.
Ирина Фетисова-Мюллерсон 14.10.2024 11:37 Заявить о нарушении / Удалить
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Рецензия на «Не стоит раскладывать карты» (Орехова Галина Григорьевна)
Благословений вам вашим родным и близким… с.п.
Сергей Полищук 14.10.2024 08:26 • Заявить о нарушении / Редактировать / Удалить
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Рецензия на «Сидить дiвча над бистрою водою» (Евгений Ратков)
Blessings to You All Your Family and Loved Ones… с.п.
Сергей Полищук 14.10.2024 08:18 • Заявить о нарушении / Редактировать / Удалить
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Рецензия на «Размышления автора» (Грабежева Татьяна)
Есть те кто понимает всё без слов
Есть те кто слов совсем не понимает
А жизни нет - есть смерть и есть любовь
Счаслив лишь тот - кто ничего не знает
Живи / учись - так нам диктует век
Есть только миг - его зовём мы “время”
Отшельник мудрый носит это бремя
Свет под плащом с названьем - человек
Взлянул я раз в отшельника глаза
Он ничего в ответ мне не сказал
Лишь указал правой рукой на горы
Я шёл за ним и в зеркало дышал
Нас обогнав Иван-дурак бежал
Чтобы сломать все скрепы и опоры
Благословений Вам Вашим Родным и Близким… с.п.
Сергей Полищук 14.10.2024 06:47 • Заявить о нарушении / Редактировать / Удалить
DCCCLXXXV - 885 DAYS A.A. oTo
A PROGRAM FOR LIVING
When we retire at night, we constructively review our day. . . . On awakening let us think about the twenty-four hours ahead. . . . Before we begin, we ask God to direct our thinking, especially asking that it be divorced from self-pity, dishonest or self-seeking motives.
ALCOHOLICS ANONYMOUS, p. 86
I lacked serenity. With more to do than seemed possible, I fell further behind, no matter how hard I tried. Worries about things not done yesterday and fear of tomorrow's deadlines denied me the calm I needed to be effective each day. Before taking Steps Ten and Eleven, I began to read passages like the one cited above. I tried to focus on God's will, not my problems, and to trust that He would manage my day. It worked! Slowly, but it worked!
From the book Daily Reflections.
Copyright © 1990 by Alcoholics Anonymous World Services, Inc. All rights reserved.
…
ПРОГРАММА ДЛЯ ЖИЗНИ
Когда мы выходим на ночной отдых, мы конструктивно анализируем свой день. . . . Проснувшись, давайте подумаем о предстоящих двадцати четырех часах. . . . Прежде чем приступить к работе, мы просим Бога направить наши мысли, особенно просим, чтобы они были свободны от жалости к себе, нечестных или корыстных побуждений.
ALCOHOLICS ANONYMOUS, p. 86
Мне не хватало спокойствия. Когда нужно было сделать больше, чем казалось возможным, я все больше отставал, как бы ни старался. Беспокойство о несделанных вчера делах и страх перед завтрашними сроками лишали меня спокойствия, необходимого для эффективной работы каждый день. Прежде чем приступить к Десятому и Одиннадцатому шагам, я начал читать отрывки, подобные приведенному выше. Я старался сосредоточиться на Божьей воле, а не на своих проблемах, и верить, что Он управит мой день. Это сработало! Медленно, но помогло!
Из книги "Ежедневные размышления".
Copyright © 1990 by Alcoholics Anonymous World Services, Inc. Все права защищены.
…
As Bill Sees It #essentialsofrec #recovery #BillW #Resentment
15
October
MASTERING RESENTMENTS, p. 286
We began to see that the world and its people had really dominated us. Under that unhappy condition, the wrongdoing of others, fancied or real, had power to actually kill us, because we could be driven back to drink through resentment. We saw that these resentments must be mastered, but how? We could not wish them away.
This was our course: We realized that the people who wronged us were perhaps spiritually sick. So we asked God to help us show them the same tolerance, pity, and patience that we would cheerfully grant a sick friend.
Today, we avoid retaliation or argument. We cannot treat sick people that way. If we do, we destroy our chance of being helpful. We cannot be helpful to all people, but at least God will show us how to take a kindly and tolerant view of each and every one.
ALCOHOLICS ANONYMOUS, pp. 66-67
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Как это видит Билл #essentialsofrec #восстановление #BillW #Resentment
15
Октябрь
МАСТЕРИНГ ВОЗМЕЗДИЯ, стр. 286
Мы начали понимать, что мир и его люди действительно доминируют над нами. В этом несчастном состоянии проступки других людей, надуманные или реальные, были способны фактически убить нас, потому что мы могли вернуться к пьянству через обиду. Мы понимали, что с этими обидами нужно бороться, но как? Мы не могли пожелать, чтобы они исчезли.
Таков был наш курс: Мы поняли, что люди, которые нас обидели, возможно, духовно больны. Поэтому мы попросили Бога помочь нам проявить к ним ту же терпимость, жалость и терпение, которые мы с радостью оказали бы больному другу.
Сегодня мы избегаем мести и споров. Мы не можем так относиться к больным людям. Если мы это сделаем, то лишим себя шанса быть полезными. Мы не можем быть полезны всем людям, но, по крайней мере, Бог покажет нам, как относиться к каждому из них с добротой и терпимостью.
ALCOHOLICS ANONYMOUS, pp. 66-67
Почему бы не подписаться на электронную почту, чтобы получать все ежедневные публикации?
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Что такое адренохром и как он связан с теориями заговора
Читать в полной версии
Фото: Unsplash
Адренохром — вещество, которое с завидной регулярностью всплывает в теориях заговора. Разбираемся, что это такое, как возникает и почему обладает такой популярностью у конспирологов
Этот материал выходит в рамках проекта «Мифбастинг», где мы рассказываем о спорных явлениях, достоверность которых не доказана в академической среде. Пытаемся разобраться, где правда, а где вымысел. При написании статей авторы мыслят критически и используют научный подход, чтобы не распространять ложную информацию.
Что такое адренохром
Адренохром — это химическое вещество, которое образуется в результате окисления адреналина, гормона стресса, активизирующего в мозгу реакцию «бей или беги». Несмотря на его название, он никак не связан с металлом «хромом». Последние четыре буквы в названии вещества указывают на темно-фиолетовый цвет его образцов.
Бей и беги: зачем природа изобрела защитный механизм и как он включается
Социальная экономика
Адренохром впервые заинтересовал науку во второй половине ХХ века, тогда американские ученые провели несколько исследований с небольшим количеством участников. В них специалисты изучали влияние вещества на организм человека. В 1954 году психиатры Абрам Хоффер и Хамфри Осмонд выдвинули гипотезу, по которой переизбыток адренохрома в мозгу мог способствовать развитию шизофрении, дереализации и других ментальных проблем, которая была опровергнута. В 1967-м они предложили использовать крупные дозы витаминов С и В3 для нейтрализации вещества, однако эффективность этих методов не была доказана ни в одном из других исследований.
Адренохром в литературе
Точная связь адренохрома с шизофрений так и не была установлена. Однако это не остановило писателей ХХ века от того, чтобы поставить вещество в один ряд с психоделическими наркотиками, изменяющими восприятие мира и активизирующими психические процессы. В культовом произведении Энтони Берджесса «Заводной апельсин» герои пьют moloko с добавлением «дренохрома».
Хантер С. Томпсон в автобиографическом романе «Страх и отвращение в Лас-Вегасе» описал эффект адренохрома («по сравнению с ним мескалин — имбирное пиво») и мифический метод его производства: «Единственный источник этого — надпочечники живого человеческого тела. Вещество никакое, если брать его из трупа». Сцена употребления вещества была показана в экранизации книги — «Страх и ненависть в Лас-Вегасе». В дополнительных материалах к фильму режиссер Терри Гиллиам признавал, что эпизод — художественный вымысел, такого наркотика нет в реальности, а о существовании реального вещества с таким же названием ему даже не было известно.
Реальные эффекты адренохрома
То, что сцена из «Страха и ненависти в Лас-Вегасе» — вымысел, свидетельствуют многочисленные рассказы тех, кто попробовал адренохром. Эдуардо Даунинг, испанский писатель и автор книги «Адренохром и другие мифические наркотики» описал, что у него нулевой психоделический потенциал — «в разы удобнее выпить чашку кофе». Пользователи сайта организации Erowid (НКО, занимающейся просвещением о психоактивных веществах) согласны с Даунингом. В публикациях об употреблении адренохрома можно прочесть: «Эффект был крайне слаб. Никакого веселья, никакой психоделики». В другом отзыве описывается учащенное сердцебиение, нескончаемое потоотделение и «головная боль, способная уничтожить слона». При этом у испытуемого она безостановочно длилась два часа, а потом периодически возникала в течение недели. Пользователь подчеркнул: «У меня не было никаких галлюцинаций, если только вся эта боль мне не привиделась».
Почему люди верят в теории заговора
Социальная экономика
Адренохром в фильмах
Несмотря на это, культурный троп ХХ века о том, что адренохром обладает крайне мощным наркотическим эффектом, перекочевал в книги, фильмы и сериалы XXI века. В британском сериале «Льюис» в одной из серий была показана сцена, как зависимые люди добывают вещество из надпочечников живого человека. В фэнтези британского писателя Терри Пратчетта «Посох и шляпа» приводилось такое описание героя: «Он выглядел как кто-то съевший горстку шишковидных желез и запивший это пинтой адренохрома». В фильме 2017 года «Адренохром» группировка психопатов убивает людей и извлекает из их надпочечников это вещество.
Элиты и адренохром: конспирология
Из поп-культуры миф об адренохроме перекочевал на онлайн-платформы. В 2013–2014 годах на анонимном сайте 4chan появился тред с видео, которое называлось «Еврейский Ритуальный Кровавый Навет Это Извлечение #АДРЕНОХРОМА». В течение следующих нескольких лет теория заговора получила новые подробности, особенно помогли выборы президента США в 2016 году.
Согласно сформированной концепции, некие «мировые элиты» (высокопоставленные члены Демократической партии США, поп-звезды, художники и журналисты либеральных взглядов) регулярно участвуют в кровавых ритуалах, в ходе которых дети приносятся в жертву Сатане, а пока они мучаются, из их тел извлекается адренохром. Элиты настолько подсели на вещество, что не могут без него существовать. Теория заговора существует до сих пор — люди с американскими флагами, оружием или лозунгами Make America Great Again на аватарках публикуют в соцсетях мемы об этом и вступают в группы, где делятся новыми «ужасающими» подробностями. По описанию одной из них можно догадаться о характере «теории».
Перевод: «Использование Адренохрома Широко Распространено в нашем Обществе и поэтому настало Время Проснуться, узреть эти Факты и Начать Узнавать про Причины: ПОЧЕМУ , КАК , КОГДА , КТО , ГДЕ и ПОЧЕМУ мы должны взирать на Общество «открытыми глазами с САМОГО ВЕРХА……………» (Фото: thedailybeast.com)
Комбинация лжи
Конспирология об аденохроме обладает элементами двух популярных теорий заговора: QAnon и мировой еврейский заговор. Ко второй относятся «ритуальные» стороны концепции. Они схожи с антисемитскими фальшивками, существующими с античными, но получившими особую популярность в начале ХХ века. По ним евреи на праздники пьют кровь христианских младенцев или используют ее для приготовления мацы. Именно с этой теорией заговора было связано самое крупное судебное разбирательство последних десятилетий Российской империи — «Дело Бейлиса».
QAnon — более новое изобретение. По этой теории, «элиты» занимаются каннибализмом и склонны к педофилии. Миллиардер Дональд Трамп же в этой картине мира — спаситель. Он выдвинул свою кандидатуру на президентских выборах в 2016 году по просьбе ряда генералов США, которые посчитали, что только он сможет спасти мир от сатанистов-педофилов. Исследователи называют QAnon «зонтичной теорией заговора», так как она по ходу развития постепенно обрастает элементами других, более старых конспирологических теорий. Например, про убийство Джона Кеннеди, существование НЛО, теракты 11 сентября 2001 года и так далее.
Почему теории заговора про адренохром неверны
Как в случае со многими другими теориями заговора, конспирология про адренохром основывается на реальном факте. Это вещество действительно существует и связано с человеческим гормоном резкой реакции — адреналином. Однако адренохром — лишь продукт его окисления. Его связь с ментальными заболеваниями была опровергнута, а никакого эффекта, кроме сильной головной боли, его прием не дает. «Теория», по которой адренохром может выделяться только из тел умирающих детей — прямая фальшивка, которая объединяет в себе антисемитскую конспирологию и искажение истории в пользу бывшего президента США Дональда Трампа.
Автор
Семен Башкиров
https://trends.rbc.ru/trends/amp/news/635f80af9a79475f7dc737f8
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Биосинтез и метаболизм
Адренохром синтезируется в лабораториях и продаётся в аптеках, а также вырабатывается в надпочечниках, шишковидной железе головного мозга, является одним из продуктов окисления адреналина свободными радикалами(хиноидное окисление) при окислительном стрессе. О-Хиноновый фрагмент адренохрома может восстанавливаться с образованием адренолютина.
Адренохром в массовой культуре
* Энтони Бёрджесс в книге «Заводной апельсин» описывает наркотический напиток, который продавался в «Korova milk bar» — молоко с добавленным в него «дренокромом» (искажённое от «адренохром»).
* В книге Хантера Томпсона «Страх и отвращение в Лас-Вегасе» и экранизации этого произведенияадренохром представлен как один из самых сильных наркотиков, по сравнению с которым «мескалин — имбирное пиво». На самом деле это художественное преувеличение.
* На сингле 1982 года группы The Sisters of Mercy «Body Electric» присутствует песня под названием Adrenochrome, также она присутствует на другой пластинке группы и на сборнике синглов.
* «Адренохром» — независимый фильм 2017 года режиссёра Тревора Симмса, главные роли в котором исполнили Том Сайзмор и Ларри Бишоп.
* Адренохром также фигурирует в конспирологических теориях, таких как QAnon и Пиццагейт.
* Во 2-й серии 1-го сезона сериале «Льюис» упоминается наркотик адренохром.
* Во второй серии 24-го сезона мультсериала «Южный Парк» сторонники отказа от вакцинацииупоминают адренохром как средство, которое добывают из детей «Голливудские элиты».
* «Адренохром» — название 9 трека в альбоме «Bootleg 187» российского хип-хоп исполнителя MURDA KILLA.
* «Адренохром» — название сингла российского хип-хоп исполнителя ATL.
* «Адренохром» — название трека на альбоме Найка Борзова «Потерянный среди звёзд. Акт I», вышедшем в 2022 году.
* Упоминается в треке группы «Макулатура» — «Дьявол».
* Упоминается в треке Oxxxymiron — «Нон-фикшн».
* «Адренохром» — название трека в альбоме «Вовк» группы «Структура Щастя».
* «Адренохром» - название сингла российского хип-хоп исполнителя CODE10
* …
Литература
* [1];Green, S., et al. Mechanism of the catalytic oxidation of adrenaline by ferritin. J. Biol. Chem., 220, 237—255 (1956).
* [2];В. С. Гуськов. Терминологический словарь психиатра / под ред. Г. И. Плессо. — М.: Медицина, 1965. — С. 11.
* [3];Hoffer A., Osmond H., Smythies J. Schizophrenia: A new approach. II. Results of a year’s research. Journal of Mental Science 100 (418):29-45, Янв. 1954.
* [4];John Smythies. The adrenochrome hypothesis of schizophrenia revisited (англ.) // Neurotoxicity Research[англ.] : journal. — 2002. — Vol. 4, no. 2. — P. 147—150. — doi:10.1080/10298420290015827.Архивировано 1 ноября 2017 года.
* [5];Hoffer A., Osmond H. The Hallucinogens. — Academic Press, 1967.
* [6];Alexander Shulgin, Ann Shulgin. №157 TMA. Extensions and commentary //PiHKAL: A Chemical Love Story. — Berkeley, California: Transform Press, 1995. — 978 p. — ISBN 0-963-0096-0-5.
* [7];Baez, S., et al. Glutathione transferases catalyse the detoxication of oxidized metabolites (o-quinones) of catecholamines and may serve as an antioxidant system preventing degenerative cellular processes. Biochem. J., 324, 25-28 (1997)
* [8];The Sisters Of Mercy — Body Electric (англ.). Discogs. Дата обращения: 10 июня 2016.Архивировано 30 марта 2016 года.
* [9];Misirlou (англ.). IMDb. Дата обращения: 2 июня 2020. Архивировано 5 июня 2020 года.
* [10];Trevor Simms. Adrenochrome movie trailer (англ.). YouTube (14 августа 2016). Дата обращения: 18 мая 2020.Архивировано 12 августа 2020 года.Retrieved 26 March 2020.
* [11];Alex Nichols. Slender Man for Boomers (англ.). The Outline (6 июня 2019). Дата обращения: 18 мая 2020.Архивировано 15 мая 2020 года.Retrieved 16 March 2020.
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Психоделики
класс психоактивных веществ
Психоде;лики (от др.-греч. ;;;; — «душа», «сознание» и ;;;;; — «ясный», «очевидный») — класс психоактивных веществ, изменяющих восприятие и влияющих на эмоциональное состояние и многие психические процессы. Психоделики могут вводить человека в изменённые состояния сознания. Как правило, не считаются опасными в плане возникновения зависимости или аддикции.
Пример «Психоделического узора» (на картинке представлен разукрашенный фрактал). Подобные узоры можно наблюдать, например, под воздействием DMT
В отличие от большинства других психоактивных веществ, например, опиатовили стимуляторов, приём психоделиков не гарантирует достижения заранее известного состояния психики. Психоделический опыт заключается в переживании изменённых или трансовыхсостояний сознания, причём содержание этого опыта может быть очень разнообразным.
С фармакологической точки зрения многие психоделики чаще всего являются агонистами серотониновых рецепторов типа 5-HT2A, относящимися к двум основным группам: триптаминам либо фенилэтиламинам. Однако психоделическими свойствами могут обладать вещества практически любой структуры, оказывающие воздействие на широкий спектр нервных рецепторов.
В большинстве стран употребление и распространение психоделиков преследуется по закону. Однако в последнее время проводятся исследования применимости психоделиков для избавления зависимости от табака и алкоголя и психологической помощи больным онкологическими заболеваниями.
Происхождение термина
В конце XIX — начале XX века появляется термин «фантастикум», относящийся к мескалину, его экстрактам, смесям продуктов переработки сырья с содержанием мескалина. Позднее в «фантастикумы» включают и другие наименования галлюциногенов и наркотических препаратов. В нынешнее время слово практически не употребляется.
Термин «психоделики» был предложен американским психиатром Хамфри Осмондом в письме к писателю Олдосу Хаксли в середине 1950-х годов. Оба учёных изучали воздействие ЛСД, мескалина и подобных веществ на сознание человека. В медицине для обозначения препаратов с подобным действием используются термины психодизлептик или галлюциноген (а также психотомиметик — «стимулирующий психоз»), однако, по мнению Осмонда и Хаксли, данное понятие носит предвзятый и отрицательный характер и «не отражает действительности», из-за чего, по их мнению, должно было быть заменено. Начиная с 1956 года слово «психоделик» используется в научном лексиконе.
Бум употребления психоделиков пришёлся на середину 1960-х годов и связан, прежде всего, с деятельностью Тимоти Лири — профессора психологии Гарвардского университета, ставшего своеобразным гуруЛСД, а также американского писателя Кена Кизи.
История
Психоделики имеют долгую историю традиционного использования в народной медицине и религиозных практиках. Их способность воздействия на восприятие использовалась для физического и духовного лечения. Психоделики использовались людьми в шаманских и религиозных ритуалах, начиная с доисторических времен. В настоящее время в религиозных целях эндемичные психоактивные вещества используются, например, индейцами Южной Америки. Часто в данном контексте психоделики известны под названием энтеогены.
Первый интерес к психоделикам в западной науке возник в середине-конце XIX века с началом изучения мескалина. После Второй мировой войныпсиходеликами пробовали пользоваться как лекарствами, в том числе, при лечении депрессий.
Затем, начиная с 1960-х годов, широко распространилось употребление психоделиков в «рекреационных целях» как наркотиков, в том числе в культурах битников и хиппи (особенно ЛСД). ЦРУпроводило секретные эксперименты, в которых изучалось действие ЛСД на случайных, не подозревавших об этом людях (см. Проект «МК-Ультра»). Политический скандал, вызванный этими экспериментами, тенденции к масштабным социальным переменам (например, протесты против войны во Вьетнаме), возникшие в молодёжной среде того времени, а также немногочисленные случаи самоубийств и тяжёлых расстройств психики вследствие усугубления изначально имевшихся личностных проблем бесконтрольным приёмом психоделиков в неподходящей обстановке, вызвали испуг консервативно настроенного общества и правительства, приведший к запрету и криминализации ЛСД, а впоследствии и других психоделиков.
Существует психоделическая психотерапия, основанная на применении психоделиков.
В настоящее время в некоторых странах возобновляются работы по изучению действия психоделиков на сознание. Спонсированием, освещением и проведением современных исследований в области психоделиков и вопросами изменения политики относительно запрещённых психоделических веществ в медицине и психотерапии занимается, в частности, Мультидисциплинарная ассоциация психоделических исследований (Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, или MAPS) и Исследовательский институт Хеффтера (Heffter Research Institute).
Вещества
К психоделикам относятся синтетические и полусинтетические вещества (LSD, DOB, 2C-B, DOM, DMT), содержащиеся в некоторых видах грибов псилоцибин и псилоцин, мескалин (активный компонент кактуса пейота), LSA и аяуаска (также аяваска от кечуа ayawaska) — традиционный шаманский чай, сваренный из различных растений, содержащих DMT или 5-MeO-DMT и гармин или аналогичные бета-карболины).
Не следует относить к психоделикам диссоциативные вещества, такие как DXM, кетамин и PCP («ангельская пыль»), относящиеся к более обширному классу галлюциногенов. Тетрагидроканнабинол(активный компонент каннабиса) относится к так называемому классу «малых» психоделиков, способных вызвать психоделические переживания при больших дозах и лишь в некоторых случаях. Некоторыми психоделическими свойствами обладают также и эмпатогены(MDMA, MDA). Также к психоделикам следует отнести и некоторые растительные энтеогены, например Salvia divinorum.
Биохимия
По химическому строению психоделики разделяются на фенилэтиламины и триптамины, несколько различающиеся также и по характеру воздействия (на основе собственных опытов лица, интересующиеся этими веществами, иногда говорят, что субъективно фенилэтиламины, в основном, более «холодные», «синтетические» и «жёсткие» и что они «показывают», а триптамины, в основном, более «теплые», «живые» и «мягкие» и что они «рассказывают»).
На молекулярном уровне психоделики, в основном — экзогенные агонистысеротониновых рецепторов. Эксперименты на мышах показали, что внутриклеточное действие психоделиков связано с активацией Gi/0-белка и синтезом мРНК генов EGR-1 и EGR-2. Мишенью психоделиков является кора полушарий, и в особенности пятый слой нейронов.Исследования также показывают, что такой психоделик как псилоцин влияет на сеть пассивного режима работы мозга (СПРРМ).
Воздействие психоделиков на человека
Основная статья: Психоделический опыт
Считается, что действие психоделиков заключается в выключении фильтров, отсеивающих сигналы, которые нормальное (привычное) состояние сознания считает ненужными. Эти сигналы могут исходить от различных функций мозга, включая чувства, эмоции, воспоминания, проявления бессознательного и подсознательного.
Классическими психоделиками считаются ЛСД и мескалин. Психоделики, хотя (юридически) и считаются наркотиками, не вызывают физической и, как правило, психической зависимости, однако могут быть чрезвычайно опасны при необдуманном, неосторожном использовании, ввиду способности необычайно усиливать как положительные, так и отрицательные эмоции, мысли, переживания, а также вызывать дезориентацию, дереализацию, деперсонализацию и другие психотическиеявления, особенно у неуравновешенных и психически нездоровых людей. Психоделический опыт определяется не только веществом, изменяющим сознание, а в большей мере «сетом и сеттингом» (установкой и обстановкой).
Некоторые возможные эффекты психоделических веществ:
* иллюзии;
* синестезия;
* чувство страха, депрессия, эйфория, умиротворение; возможные резкие переходы от одного состояния к другому;
* нарушение координации движений, восприятия схемы тела;
* слуховые и зрительные псевдогаллюцинации;
* яркие переживания события прошлого;
* временно;е и пространственное нарушение восприятия окружающего мира;
* иллюзорные сверхординарные способности (например, иллюзия телепатии).
Некоторые исследователи[кто?] полагают, что эффекты психоделиков имеют природу, близкую к религиозному чувству, а изменение восприятия и сознания под воздействием психоделиков аналогично подобным изменениям, практикуемым в йоге (наиболее близко психоделический опыт и сопутствующая смерть эго похожи на странствия сознания после смерти физического тела, описанные в «Тибетской Книге мёртвых») и переживаемыми в ходе духовных практик (медитаций, созерцанияи др.) в ряде недуальных восточных учений и традиций. Такие состояния носят различные названия: самадхи — в индуизме, дхьяна — в буддизме, сатори — в дзэн и т. п.
В исследовании 2011 года было показано, что даже однократное применение псилоцибина приводит к долговременным позитивным изменениям личностных качеств, таких как увеличение открытости, усиление эстетического восприятия, воображения, и творческих способностей, — в особенности, если участники эксперимента испытали мистические переживания.
Интересующиеся изменением сознания люди могут увлекаться такими практиками (а также движением нью-эйдж). Также трансперсональная психология (работы Станислава Грофа) утверждает, что под воздействием психоделиков можно испытать повторное переживание собственного рождения, что является мостом между обычным и трансперсональным состояниями сознания.
См. также
* Психоделия
* Психоделический опыт
* Психоделическая психотерапия
* Психотропные вещества
* Наркотики
* Дизайнерские наркотики
* Когнитивная свобода
…
Когнитивная свобода
Добавление краткого описания
Когнити;вная свобо;да или «право на психическое самоопределение» — свобода индивида контролировать свои собственные психические процессы, познание и сознание. Данное понятие расширяет такие понятия, как свобода мысли и совести и свобода действия по отношению к своему телу. Когнитивная свобода не является признанным правом в международных договорах по правам человека, однако она получила ограниченный уровень признания в США.
Неправительственная организация Центр когнитивной свободы и этики определяет понятие когнитивной свободы как «право каждого мыслить независимо и автономно, использовать все способности своего ума и испытывать любые формы мыслительного процесса» (англ. «the right of each individual to think independently and autonomously, to use the full spectrum of his or her mind, and to engage in multiple modes of thought»).
Обладание когнитивной свободой означает быть не ограниченным в способах достижения изменённых состояний сознания, является ли таким способом практика медитации, йоги, холотропного дыхания, использование психоактивных веществ (например, психоделиков, психостимуляторов и веществ других групп), нейротехнологий и т. п.
Поскольку психоактивные вещества являются мощным методом изменения когнитивного функционирования, многие сторонники когнитивной свободы также выступают сторонниками реформы закона о наркотиках, сторонниками легализации наркотиков, утверждая, что «война с наркотиками» на самом деле является «войной с психическими состояниями» и «войной с самим сознанием».
Центр когнитивной свободы и этики, а также другие группы, занимающиеся пропагандой когнитивной свободы, вроде Cognitive Liberty UK (с англ. «Когнитивная Свобода Великобритании»), выступают за пересмотр и реформирование закона о запрете наркотиков. Один из принципов Центра когнитивной свободы и этики: «правительства не должны преступно запрещать усиление когнитивных функций или опыт любого психического состояния» (англ. «governments should not criminally prohibit cognitive enhancement or the experience of any mental state»).
Теренс Маккенна писа;л:
«Мы имеем только половину карт до тех пор, пока мы терпим кардиналов правительства и науки, указывающих нам, куда человеческое любопытство может законно направлять своё внимание и куда нет. По сути, это совершенно нелепая ситуация. По сути, это вопрос гражданского права, поскольку то, что мы обсуждаем, есть подавление религиозного чувства, и даже не просто одного из них, а самого основного».
Оригинальный текст (англ.)
«We're playing with half a deck as long as we tolerate that the cardinals of government and science should dictate where human curiousity can legitimately send its attention and where it can not. It's an essentially preposterous situation. It is essentially a civil rights issue, because what we're talking about here is the repression of a religious sensibility. In fact, not areligious sensibility, the religious sensibility.»
— Теренс Маккенна, «Non-ordinary States of Reality Through Vision Plants»
Тимоти Лири просуммировал данную концепцию с помощью постулирования «двух новых заповедей молекулярного века»:
* I. Ты не должен изменять сознание ближнего.
* II. Ты не должен мешать ближнему изменять его собственное сознание.
Оригинальный текст (англ.)
* I. Thou shalt not alter the consciousness of thy fellow man.
* II. Thou shalt not prevent thy fellow man from altering his own consciousness.
— Тимоти Лири, «The Politics of Ecstasy»
Когнитивная свобода и права человека
Когнитивная свобода в настоящее время не признаётся в качестве права человека каким-либо международным договором по правам человека. Хотя свобода мыслипризнаётся в статье 18 Всеобщей декларации прав человека, она отличается от когнитивной свободы в том смысле, что первая касается защиты свободы человека мыслить независимо от того, что он хочет, тогда как когнитивная свобода связана с защитой свободы человека мыслить так, как он хочет. Когнитивная свобода стремится защищать право человека определять собственное состояние ума и быть свободным от внешнего контроля над своим состоянием ума, а не просто защищать содержание мыслей. Было высказано предположение о том, что отсутствие защиты когнитивной свободы в предыдущих документах по правам человека объясняется относительным отсутствием технологий, способных непосредственно вмешиваться в умственную автономию в то время, когда были созданы основные договоры по правам человека. Поскольку человеческий разум считался неуязвимым для прямого манипулирования, контроля или изменения, защищать людей от нежелательного психического вмешательства считалось ненужным. Вместе с тем, благодаря современным достижениям в области нейронаук, утверждается, что такая явная защита становится всё более необходимой.
Когнитивная свобода может рассматриваться как расширение или «обновление» права на свободу мысли. Теперь следует понимать, что свобода мысли должна включать право определять собственное психическое состояние, а также содержание своих мыслей. Однако некоторые исследователи утверждают, что когнитивная свобода уже является неотъемлемой частью международных рамок прав человека как принцип, лежащий в основе прав на свободу мысли и религии. Свобода мыслить любым способом, который вы выбираете, является «необходимым предварительным условием для гарантированных свобод». Даниэль Уотерман и Кейси Уильям Хардисон утверждают, что когнитивная свобода является основополагающей для свободы мысли. Было также высказано мнение о том, что когнитивная свобода может рассматриваться как неотъемлемое достоинство людей, как это признано в статье 1 Всеобщей декларации прав человека.
Однако большинство сторонников когнитивной свободы согласны с тем, что когнитивная свобода должна быть признана как право человека, чтобы должным образом обеспечить защиту индивидуальной когнитивной автономии.
См. также
* Морфологическая свобода
Морфологическая свобода
Добавление краткого описания
Запрос «Соматические права» перенаправляется сюда. На эту тему нужно создать отдельную статью.
Морфологи;ческая свобо;да определяет право человека сохранять неизменным либо изменять собственное тело так, как он считает нужным. Его желание может быть выражено как в виде обращения за медицинской услугой, так и в виде отказа от таковой. К сомати;ческим права;мчеловека относятся все права по распоряжению своим телом (то есть, репродуктивные права, право человека относительно своих органов и тканей, право на коррекцию пола, сексуальные права, право на смерть и др.).
История понятия
Термин, вероятно, впервые был введен философом Максом Мором в статье «Technological Self-Transformation: Expanding Personal Extropy», где он определил морфологическую свободу как «возможность изменять своё тело по собственному желанию посредством таких технологий, как хирургия, генная инженерия, нанотехнология и загрузка сознания». Позже Андресом Сандбергомтермин был определён как «расширение права человека на собственное тело, не только на владение им, но и на его изменение по собственному желанию».
В марте 2008 года Сандберг и Наташа Вита-Мор сделали совместный доклад о морфологической свободе в Second Life.
Политические дискуссии
Согласно технократу Dale Carrico, политика морфологической свободы подразумевает толерантное отношение к самому широкому разнообразию морфологий тела и образов жизни. Морфологическая свобода — продукт либерального плюрализма, прогрессивного космополитизма и постгуманистическогомультикультурализма, связанный с изменением подходов к оценке медицинской практики — от лечения к средству самоопределения через технологии генной инженерии, протезирования и когнитивные технологии.
См. также
* Биоэтика
* Донорство органов и тканей
* Импланты
* Клонирование человека
* Когнитивная свобода
* Модификации тела
* Моё тело — моё дело
* Право на смерть
* Прочойс
* Рекреационное использование психоактивных веществ
* Трансплантация
* Транссексуальность
…
Natasha Vita-More
American artist and transhumanist
Natasha Vita-More (born February 22, 1950) is a strategic designer in the area of human enhancement and life extension. Her interests are located within the ethical uses of science and technology and socio-political implications of revolutionary advances impacting humanity's future.
Quick Facts Born, Education ...
Early life and education
Vita-More was born in Bronxville, New York. Vita-More studied at Accademia di Belle Arti in Ravenna, Italy (1977) after graduating with a Bachelor of Fine Art (1973). Returning to the United States, she started a commercial design firm in Telluride, Colorado (1972-1980). She completed Paralegal Certification from Blackstone School of Law in 1992. She earned a Master of Science in Future Studies at the University of Houston (2006) and a Master of Philosophy from University of Plymouth, UK. Faculty of Technology, School of Computers, Communications and Electronics, School of Communications and Media Studies M.Phil. Vita-More was awarded a Ph.D in Media Art and Design from the Planetary Collegium, University of Plymouth, United Kingdom. Her Ph.D thesis focused on human enhancementand radical life extension.
Career
Vita-More is currently Executive Director of Humanity+ Inc. From 2012 – 2014 she was a visiting scholar, 21st Century Medicine.Since 2012, she has been a professor and department chair at the for-profit University of Advancing Technology and a former chair of its graduate program.
Between 1987 and 1993 she was the host and producer of TransCentury Update a cable TV show that aired in Los Angeles and Telluride, Colorado. Between 2001 and 2004, she was the President of the Extropy Institute.
Work
In 1982, Vita-More wrote the Transhumanist Manifesto, which was on board the Cassini-Huygens Saturn mission. It discussed the possibility for overcoming disease and extending lifespans and later she founded an organization Transhumanist Arts and Culture.
In 1997 she designed the first whole-body prosthetic, entitled Primo Posthuman, which depicted how a human might look in the future with technological enhancements such as color-changing skin. Her videos have been exhibited at the National Centre for Contemporary Arts in Russia, her painting at the Memphis Brooks Museum of Art, and other works of design compositions at the Telluride Film Festival.
She authored Create / Recreate: the 3rd Millennial Culture on the emerging cybernetic culture and the future of humanism and the arts and sciences. She is also author of Transhumanism: What is it? concerning the basic questions of the Transhumanist philosophical, ethical and cultural worldview.
She is the co-editor and contributing author of The Transhumanist Reader: Classical and Contemporary Essays on the Science, Technology, and Philosophy of the Human Future.
Her project "Primo 3M+ 2001" future physique 3D design for superlongevity in a tongue-in-cheek is based on nanotechnology and AI.
In 2014 she was the entrepreneur and scientific Lead, together with Daniel Barranco from the Department of Cryobiology of the Spanish University of Seville, for the first time, proved that the use of cryonic technologies does not destroy the long-term memory of the simplest multi-cellular organisms.
In 2019, Aging Analytics named Vita-More one of the Top-50 Women Longevity Leaders.
Personal life
Vita-More was born in Bronxville, New York. As of 2020, she lives in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Her husband is philosopher and futurist Max More.
…
Max More
English-American philosopher and futurist
Max More (born Max T. O'Connor, January 1964, with name legally changed in 1990) is a philosopher and futuristwho writes, speaks, and consults on emerging technologies. He was the president and CEO of the Alcor Life Extension Foundationbetween 2010 and 2020.
Quick Facts Born, Occupation(s) ...
Born in Bristol, England, More has a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from St Anne's College, Oxford (1987). His 1995 University of Southern California doctoral dissertation The Diachronic Self: Identity, Continuity, and Transformation examined several issues that concern transhumanists, including the nature of death, and what it is about each individual that continues despite great change over time. In 1996, he married transhumanist Natasha Vita-More; the couple are close collaborators on transhumanist and life extension research.
More founded the Extropy Institute and has written many articles espousing the philosophy of transhumanism and the transhumanist philosophy of extropianism,including his "Principles of Extropy". In a 1990 essay "Transhumanism: Toward a Futurist Philosophy", he introduced the term "transhumanism" in its modern sense.
See also
* FM-2030
* Futures studies
* Humanity+
…
FM-2030
Iranian-American-Belgian transhumanist philosopher and futurist
FM-2030 (born Fereidoun M. Esfandiary; Persian: ;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;; October 15, 1930 – July 8, 2000) was a Belgian-born Iranian-American author, teacher, transhumanist philosopher, futurist, consultant, and Olympic athlete.
Quick Facts Born, Died ...
This article contains Persian text. Without proper rendering support, you may see question marks, boxes, or other symbols.
He became notable as a transhumanist with the book Are You a Transhuman?: Monitoring and Stimulating Your Personal Rate of Growth in a Rapidly Changing World, published in 1989. In addition, he wrote a number of works of fiction under his original name F. M. Esfandiary.
Early life and education
FM-2030 was born Fereydoon M. Esfandiary on October 15, 1930, in Belgium to Iranian diplomat Abdol-Hossein “A. H.” Sadigh Esfandiary (1894–1986), who served from 1920 to 1960. He travelled widely as a child, having lived in 17 countries including Iran, India, and Afghanistan, by age 11. He represented Iran as a basketball player and wrestler at the 1948 Olympic Games in London. He attended primary school in Iran and England and completed his secondary education at Colleges Des Freres, a Jesuit school in Jerusalem. By the time he was 18, aside from his native Persian, he learned to speak 4 languages: Arabic, Hebrew, French and English. He then started his college education at the University of California, Berkeley, but later transferred to the University of California, Los Angeles, where he graduated in 1952. Afterwards, he served on the United Nations Conciliation Commission for Palestinefrom 1952 to 1954.
Name change and opinions
In 1970, after publishing his book Optimism One, F. M. Esfandiary started going by FM-2030 for two main reasons: firstly, to reflect the hope and belief that he would live to celebrate his 100th birthday in 2030; secondly, and more importantly, to break free of the widespread practice of naming conventionsthat he saw as rooted in a collectivistmentality, and existing only as a relic of humankind's tribalistic past. He formalized his name change in 1988. He viewed traditional names as almost always stamping a label of collective identity – varying from gender to nationality – on the individual, thereby existing as prima facie elements of thought processes in the human cultural fabric, that tended to degenerate into stereotyping, factionalism, and discrimination. In his own words, "Conventional names define a person's past: ancestry, ethnicity, nationality, religion. I am not who I was ten years ago and certainly not who I will be in twenty years. [...] The name 2030 reflects my conviction that the years around 2030 will be a magical time. In 2030 we will be ageless and everyone will have an excellent chance to live forever. 2030 is a dream and a goal." As a staunch anti-nationalist, he believed "There are no illegal immigrants, only irrelevant borders.".
In 1973, he published a political manifesto UpWingers: A Futurist Manifesto in which he portrays both the ideological left and right as outdated, and in their place proposes a schema of UpWingers (those who look to the sky and the future) and DownWingers (those who look to the earth and the past). FM-2030 identified with the former. He argued that the nuclear family structure and the idea of a city would disappear, being replaced by modular social communities he called mobilia, powered by communitarianism, which would persist and then disappear.
FM-2030 believed that synthetic body parts would one day make life expectancy irrelevant; shortly before his death from pancreatic cancer, he described the pancreas as "a stupid, dumb, wretched organ".
In terms of civilization, he stated: "No civilization of the past was great. They were all primitive and persecutory, founded on mass subjugation and mass murder." In terms of identity, he stated "The young modern is not losing his identity. He is gladly disencumbering himself of it." He believed that eventually, nations would disappear, and that identities would shift from cultural to personal. In a 1972 op-Ed in The New York Times, he wrote that the leadership in the Arab–Israeli conflict had failed, and that the warring sides were "acting like adolescents, refuse to resolve their wasteful 25-year-old brawl", and he believed that the world was "irreversibly evolving beyond the concept of national homeland".
Personal life
FM-2030 was a lifelong vegetarian and said he would not eat anything that had a mother. He famously refused to answer any questions about his nationality, age and upbringing, claiming that such questions were irrelevant and that he was a “global person”. FM-2030 once said, "I am a 21st century person who was accidentally launched in the 20th. I have a deep nostalgia for the future." As he spent much of his childhood in India, he was noted to have spoken English with a slight Indian accent. He taught at The New School, University of California, Los Angeles, and Florida International University. He worked as a corporate consultant for Lockheed and J. C. Penney. He was also an atheist. FM-2030 was, in his own words, a follower of "upwing" politics (i.e. neither right-wing nor left-wing but something else), and by which he meant that he endorsed universal progress. He had been in a non-exclusive "friendship" (his preferred term for relationship) with Flora Schnall, a lawyer and fellow Harvard Law Class of 1959 graduate, from the 1960s until his death. FM-2030 and Schnall attended the same class as Ruth Bader Ginsburg. He resided in Westwood, Los Angeles as well as Miami.
Death
FM-2030 died on July 8, 2000, from pancreatic cancer at a friend's apartment in Manhattan. He was placed in cryonic suspension at the Alcor Life Extension Foundation in Scottsdale, Arizona, where his body remains today. He did not yet have remote standby arrangements, so no Alcor team member was present at his death, but FM-2030 was the first person to be vitrified, rather than simply frozen as previous cryonicspatients had been. FM-2030 was survived by four sisters and one brother.
Published works
Fiction
* The Day of Sacrifice (1959) available as an eBook
* The Beggar (1965)
* Identity Card (1966) (ISBN 0-460-03843-5) available as an eBook
Non-fiction
* Optimism one; the emerging radicalism(1970) (ISBN 0-393-08611-9)
* UpWingers: A Futurist Manifesto (1973) (ISBN 0-381-98243-2) (pbk.) Available as an eBook ISBN FW00007527, Publisher: e-reads, Pub. Date: Jan 1973, File Size: 153K
* Telespheres (1977) (ISBN 0-445-04115-3)
* Are You a Transhuman?: Monitoring and Stimulating Your Personal Rate of Growth in a Rapidly Changing World (1989) (ISBN 0-446-38806-8).
Cultural references
* In Dan Brown's novel Inferno, transhumanist characters who admire FM-2030 pay tribute to him by adopting his naming convention and taking names such as FS2080.
* Several musical artists, such as the Reptaliens, Dataport, Ghosthack, Vorja, Gavin Osborn and Philip Sumner have created songs and albums named after FM-2030.
* A film titled 2030 released in 2020, which explored the possibility of FM-2030's future revival.
See also
* Blue skies research
* Steve Fuller
* Breakthrough Institute
* Proactionary Principle
* Transhumanist politics
* Bright green environmentalism
* Lifeboat Foundation
* Space colonization
* Colonization of Mars
…
Humanity+
International non-profit organization
Humanity+ (also Humanity Plus; formerly the World Transhumanist Association) is a non-profit international educational organization that advocates the ethical use of technologies and evidence-based science to improve the human condition.
Quick Facts Formation, Location ...
Humanity+
Formation
2004; 20 years ago
Location
* Wilton, Connecticut
Executive Director
Natasha Vita-More
Website
www.humanityplus.org
Close
History
Humanity+, Inc. originated as an organization under the name World Transhumanist Association. In 1998, the World Transhumanist Association (WTA) was founded by Nick Bostrom and David Pearce. In 2002, it was incorporated as a 501(c)(3) non-profit corporation. WTA began working toward the recognition of transhumanism as a legitimate subject of scientific inquiry and public policy, and to add to the academic presence already created by Extropy Institute in the fields of computer science, AI, nanotechnology, and philosophy.
At its inception, WTA officials considered that social forces could undermine their futuristvisions and needed to be addressed. A particular concern is the equal access to human enhancement technologies across classes and borders. To increase longevityand boost physiological processes, this also involves targeted improvements and therapeutic interventions. Cochlear implants and genetic engineering are two examples of medical innovations, as are wearable technology like smart phones. In opposition to anthropocentric hegemony and in favor of the appropriate application of technology to maximize human potential, Humanity+ encourages knowledge of and respect for the diversity of life forms on Earth.
In 2006, William Saletan reported a political struggle within World Transhumanist Association that erupted in 2004 largely between the libertarian right and the liberal leftresulting in a centre-leftward positioning that continued to polarize politics under its former executive director James Hughes.
"Better Than Well"
The field of medicine is always developing, improving human health in addition to curing diseases and wounds. Although there are no intrinsic problems with trying to get better, there are ethical issues to consider.Promoting health and responsible technology use are top priorities for Humanity+. Members practice mental health techniques like meditation, wellness diets, and physical activity. They also stress self-responsibility, empathy, and charity and take part in initiatives like Quantified Self.
Advisors and members
* Nick Bostrom
* David Pearce
* Natasha Vita-More
* George Dvorsky
* Giulio Prisco
* James Hughes
* Mark Alan Walker
* Aubrey de Grey
* Max More
* Ben Goertzel
* Patri Friedman
* R. U. Sirius
* Martine Rothblatt
* Linda MacDonald Glenn
* Giuseppe Vatinno
…
References
1. [1];Sutherland, John (2006-05-09). "The ideas interview: Nick Bostrom". The Guardian.
2. [2];Hughes, James (2004). Citizen Cyborg: Why Democratic Societies Must Respond to the Redesigned Human of the Future. Westview Press. ISBN 0-8133-4198-1.
3. [3];Ford, Alyssa (May–June 2005). "Humanity: The Remix". Utne Magazine. Archived from the original on 13 March 2006. Retrieved 2007-03-03.
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Futures studies
Study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures
"Futurology" redirects here. For other uses, see Futurology (disambiguation).
For the study of the "futures" financial instrument, see futures contract and futures exchange.
Not to be confused with Futurism.
Futures studies, futures research, futurism research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic studyof social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies (colloquially called "'futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.
Moore's law is an example of futurology; it is a statistical collection of past and present trends with the goal of accurately extrapolating future trends.
Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futurology concerns a much bigger and more complex world system. The methodology and knowledge are much less proven than in natural science and social sciences like sociology and economics. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science, and it is sometimes described as pseudoscience; nevertheless, the Association of Professional Futurists was formed in 2002, developing a Foresight Competency Model in 2017, and it is now possible to study it academically, for example at the FU Berlin in their master's course. To encourage inclusive and cross-disciplinary discussions about futures studies, UNESCO declared December 2 as World Futures Day.
Overview
Futurology is an interdisciplinary field that aggregates and analyzes trends, with both lay and professional methods, to compose possible futures. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in an attempt to develop foresight. Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, futures research,strategic foresight, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring, and futurology. Futures studies and strategic foresight are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world.
Foresight was the original term and was first used in this sense by H. G. Wells in 1932."Futurology" is a term common in encyclopedias, though it is used almost exclusively by nonpractitioners today, at least in the English-speaking world. "Futurology" is defined as the "study of the future". The term was coined by German professor Ossip K. Flechtheim in the mid-1940s, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include a new science of probability. This term has fallen from favor in recent decades because modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative, plausible, preferable and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures.
Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all of these disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines trends to compose possible, probable, and preferable futures along with the role "wild cards" can play on future scenarios. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemicview based on insights from a range of different disciplines, generally focusing on the STEEP categories of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions. For example, many people expect the collapse of the Earth's ecosystem in the near future, while others believe the current ecosystem will survive indefinitely. A foresight approach would seek to analyze and highlight the assumptions underpinning such views.
As a field, futures studies expands on the research component, by emphasizing the communication of a strategy and the actionable steps needed to implement the plan or plans leading to the preferable future. It is in this regard, that futures studies evolves from an academic exercise to a more traditional business-like practice, looking to better prepare organizations for the future.
Futures studies does not generally focus on short term predictions such as interest rates over the next business cycle, or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most strategic planning, which develops goals and objectives with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. Plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate possible future events are definitely part of the field. Learning about medium and long-term developments may at times be observed from their early signs. As a rule, futures studies is generally concerned with changes of transformative impact, rather than those of an incremental or narrow scope.
The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means.
To complete a futures study, a domain is selected for examination. The domain is the main idea of the project, or what the outcome of the project seeks to determine. Domains can have a strategic or exploratory focus and must narrow down the scope of the research. It examines what will, and more importantly, will not be discussed in the research. Futures practitioners study trends focusing on STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environments and Political) baselines. Baseline exploration examine current STEEP environments to determine normal trends, called baselines. Next, practitioners use scenarios to explore different futures outcomes. Scenarios examine how the future can be different. 1. Collapse Scenarios seek to answer: What happens if the STEEP baselines fall into ruin and no longer exist? How will that impact STEEP categories? 2. Transformation Scenarios: explore futures with the baseline of society transiting to a "new" state. How are the STEEP categories effected if society has a whole new structure? 3. New Equilibrium: examines an entire change to the structure of the domain. What happens if the baseline changes to a "new" baseline within the same structure of society?
History
Origins
The original visualization of the Tableau Economique by Quesnay, 1759
Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah argue that the search for grand patterns goes all the way back to Sima Qian (145–90 BC) and Ibn Khaldun (1332–1406). Early western examples include Sir Thomas More's Utopia(1516) in which a future society has overcome poverty and misery.
Advances in mathematics in the 17th century prompted attempts to calculate statistical and probabilistic concepts. Objectivity became linked to knowledge that could be expressed in numerical data. In 18th century Britain, investors established mathematical formulas to assess the future value of an asset. In 1758 the French economist Fran;ois Quesnayproceeded to establish a quantitative model of the entire economy, known as the Tableau Economique, so that future production could be planned. Meanwhile, Anne Robert Jacques Turgot first articulated the law of diminishing returns. In 1793 the Chinese bureaucrat Hong Liangji forecasted future population growth.
The Industrial Revolution was on the verge of spreading across the European continent, when in 1798 Thomas Malthus published An essay on the principle of Population as it affects the Future Improvement of Society. Malthus questioned optimistic utopias and theories of progress. Malthus' fear about the survival of the human race is regarded as an early European dystopia. Starting in the 1830s, Auguste Comte developed theories of social evolution and claimed that metapatternscould be discerned in social change. In the 1870s Herbert Spencer blended Compte's theories with Charles Darwin's biological evolution theory. Social Darwinism became popular in Europe and the USA. By the late 19th century, the belief in human progress and the triumph of scientific invention prevailed and science fiction became a popular future narrative. In 1888 William Morris published News from Nowhere, in which he theorized about how working time could be reduced.
Early 20th century
Title page of Wells's The War That Will End War (1914)
The British H. G. Wells established the genre of "true science fiction" at the turn of the century. Well's works were supposedly based on sound scientific knowledge. Wells became a forerunner of social and technological forecasting. A series of techno-optimistic newspaper articles and books were published between 1890 and 1914 in the US and Europe. After World War I the Italian Futurismmovement led by Filippo Tommaso Marinettiglorified modernity. Soviet futurists, such as Vladimir Mayakovsky, David Burliuk, and Vasily Kamensky struggled against official communist cultural policy throughout the 20th century. In Japan, futurists gained traction after World War I by denouncing the Meiji eraand glorifying speed and technological progress.
With the end of World War I interest in statistical forecasting intensified. In statistics, a forecast is a calculation of a future event's magnitude or probability. Forecasting calculates the future, while an estimateattempts to establish the value of an existing quantity. In the United States, President Hoover established a Research Committee on Social Trends in 1929 headed by William F. Ogburn. Past statistics were used to chart trends and project those trends into the future. Planning became part of the political decision-making process after World War II as capitalistand communist governments across the globe produced predictive forecasts. The RAND Corporation was founded in 1945 to assist the US military with post-war planning. The long-term planning of military and industrial Cold War efforts peaked in the 1960s when peace research emerged as a counter-movementand the positivist idea of "the one predictable future" was called into question.
1960s futures research
In 1954 Robert Jungk published a critique of the US and the supposed colonization of the future in Tomorrow is already Here. Fred L. Polak published Images of the Future in 1961, it has become a classic text on imagining alternative futures. In the 1960s, human-centered methods of future studies were developed in Europe by Bertrand de Jouveneland Johan Galtung. The positivist idea of a single future was challenged by scientists such as Thomas Kuhn, Karl Popper, and J;rgen Habermas. Future studies established itself as an academic field when social scientistsbegan to question positivism as a plausible theory of knowledge and instead turned to pluralism. At the 1967 First international Future Research Conference" in Oslo research on urban sprawl, hunger, and education was presented. In 1968 Olaf Helmer of the RAND Corporation conceded "One begins to realize that there is a wealth of possible futures and that these possibilities can be shaped in different ways". Future studies worked on the basis that a multitude of possible futures could be estimated, forecast, and manipulated.
Futures studies was developed as an empiricalresearch field. Inspired by Herman Kahn's publications, future studies employed techniques such as scenario planning, game theory, and computer simulations. Historians, political scientists and sociologists who engaged in critical futures studies, such as Ossip K. Flechtheim, and Johan Galtung, laid the foundations of peace and conflict studiesas an academic discipline.
The international academic dialogue on futures studies became institutionalized in the form of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), founded in 1967. The first doctoral program on the Study of the Future, was founded in 1969 at the University of Massachusetts by Christopher Dede and Billy Rojas. Dede also founded a master's degree program in 1975 at the University of Houston–Clear Lake. In 1976, the M.A. Program in Public Policy in Alternative Futures at the University of Hawaii at Manoawas established.
Forecasting further development
Alvin & Heidi Toffler's bestseller Future Shockin 1970 generated mainstream attention for futures studies on the post-industrial economy. It popularized the metaphor of waves to describe the economic and social changes the United States was experiencing. The authors identified the first wave as agricultural society, the second wave as industrial society and the nascent third wave as information society. In the 1970s, future studies focused less on Cold War scenarios and instead grappled on the impact of accelerated globalization. Pioneers of global future studies include Pierre Wack of Royal Dutch Shell, the Interfuture group at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Club of Rome. The Club of Rome challenged the political status quo in 1972 with the report The Limits to Growth by putting computer simulations of economic growth alongside projections of population growth.
World3 Model Standard Run as shown in The Limits to Growth
The 1972 report The Limits to Growthestablished environmental degradation firmly on the political agenda. The environmental movement demanded of industry and policymakers to consider long-term implications when planning and investing in power plants and infrastructure.
The 1990s saw a surge in futures studies in preparation for the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals, which were adopted in 2000 as international development goals for the year 2015. Throughout the 1990s large technology foresight programs were launched which informed national and regional strategies on science, technology and innovation. Prior to the 1990s foresight was rarely used to describe future studies, futurology or forecasting. Foresight prognosis relied in part on the methodologies developed by the French pioneers of prospectivesresearch, including Bertrand de Jouvenel. Foresight practitioners attempted to gather and evaluate evidence based insights for the future. Foresight research output focused on identifying challenges and opportunities, which was presented as intelligence at a strategic level. Practitioners tended to focus on particular companies or economic regions, while making no attempt to plan for specific problems.
In the 1990s several future studies practitioners attempted to synthesize a coherent framework for the futures studies research field, including Wendell Bell's two-volume work, The Foundations of Futures Studies, and Ziauddin Sardar's Rescuing all of our Futures.
Forecasting and futures techniques
Main articles: Forecasting and Futures techniques
Futures techniques or methodologies may be viewed as "frameworks for making sense of data generated by structured processes to think about the future". There is no single set of methods that are appropriate for all futures research. Different futures researchers intentionally or unintentionally promote use of favored techniques over a more structured approach. Selection of methods for use on futures research projects has so far been dominated by the intuition and insight of practitioners; but can better identify a balanced selection of techniques via acknowledgement of foresight as a process together with familiarity with the fundamental attributes of most commonly used methods.
Futurology is sometimes described by scientists as a pseudoscience, as it often deals with speculative scenarios and long-term predictions that can be difficult to test using traditional scientific methods.
Scenarios are a central technique in futures studies, and are often confused with other techniques. The flowchart to the right provides a process for classifying a phenomenon as a scenario in the intuitive logics tradition.
Process for classifying a phenomenon as a scenario in the Intuitive Logics tradition
Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting and foresight methods including:
* Framework Foresight
* Prediction markets
* Causal layered analysis (CLA)
* Environmental scanning
* Horizon scanning
* Scenario method
* Education and Learning
* Delphi method, including real-time Delphi
* Future history
* Monitoring
* Backcasting (eco-history)
* Cross-impact analysis
* Futures workshops
* Three Horizons (3H)
* Seeds of Good Anthropocenes
* Anticipatory action learning
* Predictive analytics
* Failure mode and effects analysis
* Futures wheel
* Technology roadmapping
* Social network analysis
* Systems engineering
* Trend analysis
* Morphological analysis
* Technology forecasting
* Theory U
Shaping alternative futures
Futurists use scenarios—alternative possible futures—as an important tool. To some extent, people can determine what they consider probable or desirable using qualitative and quantitative methods. By looking at a variety of possibilities one comes closer to shaping the future, rather than predicting it. Shaping alternative futures starts by establishing a number of scenarios. Setting up scenarios takes place as a process with many stages, and can take place in an evidence-based manner. Scenarios can also study unlikely and improbable developments that would otherwise be ignored. However, for credibility, they should not be entirely utopian or dystopian. One of those stages involves the study of emerging issues, such as megatrends, trends and weak signals. Megatrends illustrate major, long-term phenomena that change slowly, are often interlinked and cannot be transformed in an instant. Trends express an increase or a decrease in a phenomenon, and there are many ways to spot trends. Some argue that a trend persists long-term and long-range; affects many societal groups; grows slowly; and appears to have a profound basis. A fad operates in the short term, shows the vagaries of fashion, affects particular societal groups, and spreads quickly but superficially.
Futurists have a decidedly mixed reputation and a patchy track record at successful prediction. Many 1950s futurists predicted commonplace space tourism by 2000, but ignored the possibilities of ubiquitous, cheap computers. On the other hand, many forecasts have portrayed the future with some degree of accuracy. Sample predicted futures range from predicted ecological catastrophes, through a utopian future where the poorest human being lives in what present-day observers would regard as wealth and comfort, through the transformation of humanity into a posthuman life-form, to the destruction of all life on Earth in, say, a nanotechnological disaster. For reasons of convenience, futurists have often extrapolated present technical and societal trends and assumed they will develop at the same rate into the future; but technical progress and social upheavals, in reality, take place in fits and starts and in different areas at different rates.
Therefore, to some degree, the field has aimed to move away from prediction. Current futurists often present multiple scenarios that help their audience envision what "may" occur instead of "predicting the future". They claim that understanding potential scenarios helps individuals and organizations prepare with flexibility.
Many corporations use futurists as part of their risk management strategy, for horizon scanning and emerging issues analysis, and to identify wild cards—low probability, potentially high-impact risks. Understanding a range of possibilities can enhance the recognition of opportunities and threats. Every successful and unsuccessful business engages in futuring to some degree—for example in research and development, innovation and market research, anticipating competitor behavior and so on. Role-playing is another way that possible futures can be collectively explored, as in the research larp Civilisation's Waiting Room.
Weak signals, the future sign and wild cards
In futures research "weak signals" may be understood as advanced, noisy and socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action. There is some confusion about the definition of weak signal by various researchers and consultants. Sometimes it is referred as future oriented information, sometimes more like emerging issues. The confusion has been partly clarified with the concept 'the future sign', by separating signal, issue and interpretation of the future sign.
A weak signal can be an early indicator of coming change, and an example might also help clarify the confusion. On May 27, 2012, hundreds of people gathered for a "Take the Flour Back" demonstration at Rothamsted Research in Harpenden, UK, to oppose a publicly funded trial of genetically modified wheat. This was a weak signal for a broader shift in consumer sentiment against genetically modified foods. When Whole Foods mandated the labeling of GMOs in 2013, this non-GMO idea had already become a trend and was about to be a topic of mainstream awareness.
"Wild cards" refer to low-probability and high-impact events "that happen quickly" and "have huge sweeping consequences", and materialize too quickly for social systems to effectively respond. Elina Hiltunen notes that wild cards are not new, though they have become more prevalent. One reason for this may be the increasingly fast pace of change. Oliver Markley proposed four types of wild cards:
* Type I Wild Card: low probability, high impact, high credibility
* Type II Wild Card: high probability, high impact, low credibility
* Type III Wild Card: high probability, high impact, disputed credibility
* Type IV Wild Card: high probability, high impact, high credibility
He posits that it is important to track the emergence of "Type II Wild Cards" that have a high probability of occurring, but low credibility that it will happen. This focus is especially important to note because it is often difficult to persuade people to accept something they do not believe is happening, until they see the wild card. An example is climate change. This hypothesis has gone from Type I (high impact and high credibility, but low probability where science was accepted and thought unlikely to happen) to Type II (high probability, high impact, but low credibility as policy makers and lobbyists push back against the science), to Type III (high probability, high impact, disputed credibility) — at least for most people: There are still some who probably will not accept the science until the Greenland ice sheet has completely melted and sea-level has risen the seven meters estimated rise.
This concept may be embedded in standard foresight projects and introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of social groups adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which relevant foresight information might be inferred. Sometimes, mistakenly, wild cards and weak signals are considered as synonyms, which they are not. One of the most often cited examples of a wild card event in recent history is 9/11. Nothing had happened in the past that could point to such a possibility and yet it had a huge impact on everyday life in the United States, from simple tasks like how to travel via airplane to deeper cultural values. Wild card events might also be natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina, which can force the relocation of huge populations and wipe out entire crops or completely disrupt the supply chain of many businesses. Although wild card events cannot be predicted, after they occur it is often easy to reflect back and convincingly explain why they happened.
Near-term predictions
A long-running tradition in various cultures, and especially in the media, involves various spokespersons making predictions for the upcoming year at the beginning of the year. These predictions are thought-provokers, which sometimes base themselves on current trends in culture (music, movies, fashion, politics); sometimes they make hopeful guesses as to what major events might take place over the course of the next year. Evidently, some of these predictions may come true as the year unfolds, though many fail. When predicted events fail to take place, the authors of the predictions may state that misinterpretation of the "signs" and portentsmay explain the failure of the prediction.
Marketers have increasingly started to embrace futures studies, in an effort to benefit from an increasingly competitive marketplace with fast production cycles, using such techniques as trendspotting as popularized by Faith Popcorn.[dubious – discuss]
Trend analysis and forecasting
Megatrends
Trends come in different sizes. A megatrend extends over many generations, and in cases of climate, megatrends can cover periods prior to human existence. They describe complex interactions between many factors. The increase in population from the palaeolithicperiod to the present provides an example. Megatrends are likely to produce greater change than any previous one, because technology is causing trends to unfold at an accelerating pace. The concept was popularized by the 1982 book Megatrends by futurist John Naisbitt.
Potential trends
Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects, beliefs or actions and activism that have the potential to grow and eventually go mainstream in the future.
Branching trends
Very often, trends relate to one another the same way as a tree-trunk relates to branches and twigs. For example, a well-documented movement toward equality between men and women might represent a branch trend. The trend toward reducing differences in the salaries of men and women in the Western world could form a twig on that branch.
Life cycle of a trend
Understanding the technology adoption cycle helps futurists monitor trend development. Trends start as weak signals by small mentions in fringe media outlets, discussion conversations or blog posts, often by innovators. As these ideas, projects, beliefs or technologies gain acceptance, they move into the phase of early adopters. In the beginning of a trend's development, it is difficult to tell if it will become a significant trend that creates changes or merely a trendy fad that fades into forgotten history. Trends will emerge as initially unconnected dots but eventually coalesce into persistent change.
Some trends emerge when enough confirmation occurs in the various media, surveys or questionnaires to show that it has an increasingly accepted value, behavior or technology, it becomes accepted as a bona fide trend. Trends can also gain confirmation by the existence of other trends perceived as springing from the same branch. Some commentators claim that when 15% to 25% of a given population integrates an innovation, project, belief or action into their daily life then a trend becomes mainstream.
Life cycle of technologies
General Hype Cycle used to visualize technological life stages of maturity, adoption, and social application
Gartner created their Hype cycle to illustrate the phases a technology moves through as it grows from research and development to mainstream adoption. The unrealistic expectations and subsequent disillusionment that virtual reality experienced in the 1990s and early 2000s is an example of the middle phases encountered before a technology can begin to be integrated into society.
Education
Education in the field of futures studies has taken place for some time. Beginning in the United States in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries. Futures education encourages the use of concepts, tools and processes that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and imaginatively. It generally helps students to:
1. conceptualize more just and sustainable human and planetary futures.
2. develop knowledge and skills of methods and tools used to help people understand, map, and influence the future by exploring probable and preferred futures.
3. understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures.
4. conscientize responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.
Thorough documentation of the history of futures education exists, for example in the work of Richard A. Slaughter (2004), David Hicks, Ivana Milojevi; to name a few.
While futures studies remains a relatively new academic tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it. These vary from small programs, or universities with just one or two classes, to programs that offer certificates and incorporate futures studies into other degrees, (for example in planning, business, environmental studies, economics, development studies, science and technology studies). Various formal Masters-level programs exist on six continents. Finally, doctoral dissertations around the world have incorporated futures studies (see e.g. Rohrbeck, 2010; von der Gracht, 2008;Hines, 2012). A recent survey documented approximately 50 cases of futures studies at the tertiary level.
A Futures Studies program is offered at Tamkang University, Taiwan. Futures Studies is a required course at the undergraduate level, with between three and five thousand students taking classes on an annual basis. Housed in the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies is an MA Program. Only ten students are accepted annually in the program. Associated with the program is the Journal of Futures Studies.
The longest running Future Studies program in North America was established in 1975 at the University of Houston–Clear Lake. It moved to the University of Houston in 2007 and renamed the degree to Foresight. The program was established on the belief that if history is studied and taught in an academic setting, then so should the future. Its mission is to prepare professional futurists. The curriculum incorporates a blend of the essential theory, a framework and methods for doing the work, and a focus on application for clients in business, government, nonprofits, and society in general.
As of 2003, over 40 tertiary education establishments around the world were delivering one or more courses in futures studies. The World Futures Studies Federation has a comprehensive survey of global futures programs and courses. The Acceleration Studies Foundation maintains an annotated list of primary and secondary graduate futures studies programs.
A MA Program in Futures Studies has been offered at Free University of Berlin since 2010.
A MSocSc and PhD program in Futures Studies is offered at the University of Turku, Finland.
The University of Stellenbosch Business School in South Africa offers a PGDip in Future Studies as well as a MPhil in Future Studies degree.
Applications of foresight and specific fields
General applicability and use of foresight products
Several corporations and government agencies use foresight products to both better understand potential risks and prepare for potential opportunities as an anticipatory approach. Several government agencies publish material for internal stakeholders as well as make that material available to broader public. Examples of this include the US Congressional Budget Office long term budget projections, the National Intelligence Center, and the United Kingdom Government Office for Science. Much of this material is used by policy makers to inform policy decisions and government agencies to develop long-term plan. Several corporations, particularly those with long product development lifecycles, use foresight and future studies products and practitioners in the development of their business strategies. The Shell Corporation is one such entity.Foresight professionals and their tools are increasingly being used in both the private and public areas to help leaders deal with an increasingly complex and interconnected world.
Imperial cycles and world order
Imperial cycles represent an "expanding pulsation" of "mathematically describable" macro-historic trend.
Chinese philosopher Kang Youwei and French demographer Georges Vacher de Lapougestressed in the late 19th century that the trend cannot proceed indefinitely on the finite surface of the globe. The trend is bound to culminate in a world empire. Kang Youwei predicted that the matter will be decided in a contest between Washington and Berlin; Vacher de Lapouge foresaw this contest as being between the United States and Russia and wagered the odds were in the United States' favour. Both published their futures studies before H. G. Wells introduced the science of future in his Anticipations (1901).
Four later anthropologists—Hornell Hart, Raoul Naroll, Louis Morano, and Robert Carneiro—researched the expanding imperial cycles. They reached the same conclusion that a world empire is not only pre-determined but close at hand and attempted to estimate the time of its appearance.
Education
As foresight has expanded to include a broader range of social concerns all levels and types of education have been addressed, including formal and informal education. Many countries are beginning to implement Foresight in their Education policy. A few programs are listed below:
* Finland's FinnSight 2015 – Implementation began in 2006 and though at the time was not referred to as "Foresight" they tend to display the characteristics of a foresight program.
* Singapore's Ministry of Education Master plan for Information Technology in Education – This third Masterplan continues what was built on in the 1st and 2nd plans to transform learning environments to equip students to compete in a knowledge economy.
* The World Future Society, founded in 1966, is the largest and longest-running community of futurists in the world. WFS established and built futurism from the ground up—through publications, global summits, and advisory roles to world leaders in business and government.
By the early 2000s, educators began to independently institute futures studies (sometimes referred to as futures thinking) lessons in K-12 classroom environments. To meet the need, non-profit futures organizations designed curriculum plans to supply educators with materials on the topic. Many of the curriculum plans were developed to meet common core standards. Futures studies education methods for youth typically include age-appropriate collaborative activities, games, systems thinking and scenario building exercises.
There are several organizations devoted to furthering the advancement of Foresight and Future Studies worldwide. Teach the Futureemphasizes foresight educational practices appropriate for K-12 schools. Warmer Sun Education is a global online learning community for K-12 students and their parents to learn about exponential progress, emerging technologies and their applications and exploring possible pathways to solve humanity's grand challenges. The University of Houston has a Master's (MS) level graduate program through the College of Technology as well as a certificate program for those interested in advanced studies. The Department of Political Science and College of Social Sciences at the University of Hawaii Manoa has the Hawaii Research Center for Future Studies which offers a Master's (MA) in addition to a Doctorate (PhD).
Science fiction
Wendell Bell and Ed Cornish acknowledge science fiction as a catalyst to future studies, conjuring up visions of tomorrow. Science fiction's potential to provide an "imaginative social vision" is its contribution to futures studies and public perspective. Productive sci-fi presents plausible, normative scenarios.Jim Dator attributes the foundational concepts of "images of the future" to Wendell Bell, for clarifying Fred Polak's concept in Images of the Future, as it applies to futures studies. Similar to futures studies' scenarios thinking, empirically supported visions of the future are a window into what the future could be. However, unlike in futures studies, most science fiction works present a single alternative, unless the narrative deals with multiple timelines or alternative realities, such as in the works of Philip K. Dick, and a multitude of small and big screen works.Pamela Sargent states, "Science fiction reflects attitudes typical of this century." She gives a brief history of impactful sci-fi publications, like The Foundation Trilogy by Isaac Asimov, and Starship Troopers by Robert A. Heinlein. Alternate perspectives validate sci-fi as part of the fuzzy "images of the future".
Brian David Johnson is a futurist and author who uses science fiction to help build the future. He has been a futurist at Intel, and is now the resident futurist at Arizona State University. "His work is called 'future casting'—using ethnographic field studies, technology research, trend data, and even science fiction to create a pragmatic vision of consumers and computing." Brian David Johnson has developed a practical guide to using science fiction as a tool for futures studies. Science fiction prototyping combines the past with the present, including interviews with notable science fiction authors to provide the tools needed to "design the future with science fiction."
Science Fiction Prototyping has five parts:
1. Pick your science concept and build an imaginative world
2. The scientific inflection point
3. The consequences, for better, or worse, or both, of the science or technology on the people and your world
4. The human inflection point
5. Reflection, what did we learn?
"A full Science Fiction Prototyping (SFP) is 6–12 pages long, with a popular structure being; an introduction, background work, the fictional story (the bulk of the SFP), a short summary and a summary (reflection). Most often science fiction prototypes extrapolate current science forward and, therefore, include a set of references at the end."
Ian Miles reviews The New Encyclopedia of Science Fiction, identifying ways Science Fiction and Futures Studies "cross-fertilize, as well as the ways in which they differ distinctly." Science Fiction cannot be simply considered fictionalized Futures Studies. It may have aims other than foresight or "prediction, and be no more concerned with shaping the future than any other genre of literature." It is not to be understood as an explicit pillar of futures studies, due to its inconsistency of integrated futures research. Additionally, Dennis Livingston, a literature and Futures journal critic says, "The depiction of truly alternative societies has not been one of science fiction's strong points, especially" preferred, normative envisages. The strengths of the genre as a form of futurist thinking are discussed by Tom Lombardo, who argues that select science fiction "combines a highly detailed and concrete level of realism with theoretical speculation on the future", "addresses all the main dimensions of the future and synthesizes all these dimensions into integrative visions of the future", and "reflects contemporary and futurist thinking", therefore it "can be viewed as the mythology of the future."
It is notable that although there are no hard limits on horizons in future studies and foresight efforts, typical future horizons explored are within the realm of the practical and do not span more than a few decades.Nevertheless, there are hard science fiction works that can be applicable as visioning exercises that span longer periods of time when the topic is of a significant time scale, such as is in the case of Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars trilogy, which deals with the terraforming of Mars and extends two centuries forward through the early 23rd century. In fact, there is some overlap between science fiction writers and professional futurists such as in the case of David Brin. Arguably, the work of science fiction authors has seeded many ideas that have later been developed (be it technological or social in nature)—from early works of Jules Verne and H.G. Wells to the later Arthur C. Clarke and William Gibson. Beyond literary works, futures studies and futurists have influenced film and TV works. The 2002 movie adaptation of Philip K. Dick's short stort, Minority Report, had a group of consultants to build a realistic vision of the future, including futurist Peter Schwartz.TV shows such as HBO's Westworld and Channel 4/Netflix's Black Mirror follow many of the rules of futures studies to build the world, the scenery and storytelling in a way futurists would in experiential scenarios and works.
Science Fiction novels for Futurists:
* William Gibson, Neuromancer, Ace Books, 1984. (Pioneering cyberpunk novel)
* Kim Stanley Robinson, Red Mars, Spectra, 1993. (Story on the founding a colony on Mars)
* Bruce Sterling, Heavy Weather, Bantam, 1994. (Story about a world with drastically altered climate and weather)
* Iain Banks' Culture novels (Space operas in distance future with thoughtful treatments of advanced AI)
Government agencies
Several governments have formalized strategic foresight agencies to encourage long range strategic societal planning, with most notable are the governments of Singapore, Finland, and the United Arab Emirates. Other governments with strategic foresight agencies include Canada's Policy Horizons Canada and the Malaysia's Malaysian Foresight Institute.
The Singapore government's Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) is part of the Strategy Group within the Prime Minister's Office. Their mission is to position the Singapore government to navigate emerging strategic challenges and harness potential opportunities. Singapore's early formal efforts in strategic foresight began in 1991 with the establishment of the Risk Detection and Scenario Planning Office in the Ministry of Defence. In addition to the CSF, the Singapore government has established the Strategic Futures Network, which brings together deputy secretary-level officers and foresight units across the government to discuss emerging trends that may have implications for Singapore.
Since the 1990s, Finland has integrated strategic foresight within the parliament and Prime Minister's Office. The government is required to present a "Report of the Future" each parliamentary term for review by the parliamentary Committee for the Future. Led by the Prime Minister's Office, the Government Foresight Group coordinates the government's foresight efforts. Futures research is supported by the Finnish Society for Futures Studies (established in 1980), the Finland Futures Research Centre (established in 1992), and the Finland Futures Academy (established in 1998) in coordination with foresight units in various government agencies.
In the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, announced in September 2016 that all government ministries were to appoint Directors of Future Planning. Sheikh Mohammed described the UAE Strategy for the Future as an "integrated strategy to forecast our nation's future, aiming to anticipate challenges and seize opportunities". The Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and Future (MOCAF) is mandated with crafting the UAE Strategy for the Future and is responsible for the portfolio of the future of UAE.
In 2018, the United States General Accountability Office (GAO) created the Center for Strategic Foresight to enhance its ability to "serve as the agency's principal hub for identifying, monitoring, and analyzing emerging issues facing policymakers." The center is composed of non-resident Fellows who are considered leading experts in foresight, planning and future thinking. In September 2019 they hosted a conference on space policy and "deep fake" synthetic media to manipulate online and real-world interactions.
Risk analysis and management
Further information: Risk management
Foresight is a framework or lens which could be used in risk analysis and management in a medium- to long-term time range. A typical formal foresight project would identify key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the scope of analysis. It would also analyze how the drivers and uncertainties could interact to create the most probable scenarios of interest and what risks they might contain. An additional step would be identifying actions to avoid or minimize these risks.
One classic example of such work was how foresight work at the Royal Dutch Shell international oil company led to envision the turbulent oil prices of the 1970s as a possibility and better embed this into company planning. Yet the practice at Shell focuses on stretching the company's thinking rather than in making predictions. Its planning is meant to link and embed scenarios in "organizational processes such as strategy making, innovation, risk management, public affairs, and leadership development."
Foresight studies can also consider the possibility of "wild card" events—or events that many consider would be impossible to envision—although often such events can be imagined as remote possibilities as part of foresight work. One of many possible areas of focus for a foresight lens could also be identifying conditions for potential scenarios of high-level risks to society.
These risks may arise from the development and adoption of emerging technologies and/or social change. Special interest lies on hypothetical future events that have the potential to damage human well-being on a global scale—global catastrophic risks.Such events may cripple or destroy modern civilization or, in the case of existential risks, even cause human extinction. Potential global catastrophic risks include but are not limited to climate change, hostile artificial intelligence, nanotechnology weapons, nuclear warfare, total war, and pandemics. The aim of a professional futurist would be to identify conditions that could lead to these events to create "pragmatically feasible roads to alternative futures."
Futurists
Main article: Futurist
Futurists are practitioners of the foresight profession, which seeks to provide organizations and individuals with images of the future to help them prepare for contingencies and to maximize opportunities. A foresight project begins with a question that ponders the future of any given subject area, including technology, medicine, government and business. Futurists engage in environmental scanning to search for drivers of change and emerging trends that may have an effect on the focus topic. The scanning process includes reviewing social media platforms, researching already prepared reports, engaging in Delphi studies, reading articles and any other sources of relevant information and preparing and analyzing data extrapolations. Then, through one of a number of highly structured methods futurists organize this information and use it to create multiple future scenarios for the topic, also known as a domain. The value of preparing many different versions of the future rather than a singular prediction is that they provide a client with the ability to prepare long-range plans that will weather and optimize a variety of contexts.
Books
APF's list of most significant futures works
The Association for Professional Futurists recognizes the Most Significant Futures Works for the purpose of identifying and rewarding the work of foresight professionals and others whose work illuminates aspects of the future.
More information Author, Title ...
Other notable foresight books
* "Four Futures: Life After Capitalism" by Peter Frase 2016
* Teaching about the Future by Peter C. Bishop and Andy Hines
* Deep Time Reckoning: How Future Thinking Can Help Earth Now by (Vincent Ialenti) 2020
* "The Fourth Industrial Revolution" by Klaus Schwab 2016
* "Futuring: The Exploration of the Future" by Edward Cornish 2004
* "Foresight Infused Strategy" by Maree Conway
* Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 (Michio Kaku)
* "Learning from the Long View", Peter Schwartz 2011
* The Future of the Mind: The Scientific Quest to Understand, Enhance, and Empower the Mind (Michio Kaku)
* The Age of Intelligent Machines (Ray Kurzweil)
* The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (Ray Kurzweil)
* Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think (Peter Diamandis)
* Brave New World (Aldous Huxley)
* The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (George Friedman)
* Future Shock (Alvin & Heidi Toffler)
* Thinking About the Future (Andy Hines and Peter C. Bishop)
* The Third Wave (Alvin & Heidi Toffler)
* Futurewise: Six Faces of Global Change(Patrick Dixon)
* Our Final Hour (Martin Rees)
* The Revenge of Gaia (James Lovelock)
* The Skeptical Environmentalist (Bj;rn Lomborg)
* Surviving 1,000 Centuries Can We Do It?(Roger-Maurice Bonnet and Lodewijk Woltjer)
* Paris in the Twentieth Century (Jules Verne)
* The Communist Manifesto (Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels)
* Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow(Yuval Noah Harari, 2016)
* Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes, Richard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy
* Future Agenda Tim Jones
* Future Frequencies Derek Woodgate with Wayne Pethrick
* Social Theory and Social Change Trevor Nobel
* Scenario-based Strategy Paul De Ruijter
* Scenario Planning: The Link between Future and Strategy Mats Lindgren & Hans Banhold
* Creating Better Futures Jay Ogilvy
* Questioning the Future: Methods and Tools for Organisational and Societal Transformation Sohail Inayatullah
* Strategic Foresight: Learning from the Future Patricia Lustig
* History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David Stanley
Periodicals and journals
* European Journal of Futures Research
* Foresight
* Futures
* The Futurist (World Future Society)
* Futures & Foresight Science
* International Journal of Forecasting
* Journal of Futures Studies
* Technological Forecasting and Social Change
* World Futures
* World Futures Review
Organizations
Foresight professional networks
* World Future Society
* World Futures Studies Federation
* World Future Council
* Association of Professional Futurists
* The Millennium Project
Public-sector foresight organizations
* National Intelligence Council
* NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts
* Government Office for Science (United Kingdom)
* MiGHT – Malaysian Industry Government Group for High Technology
Non-governmental foresight organizations
* Future Studies Program (Virtual Website)
* RAND Corporation
* Hudson Institute
* Club of Rome
* Institute for the Future
* International Futures Forum
* Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm
* Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
* Tellus Institute
* Global Business Network
* The Arlington Institute (TBD)
* Global Scenario Group
* The Millennium Project
* The Venus Project
* Long Now Foundation
* Machine Intelligence Research Institute
* Strategic Foresight Group
* Future of Humanity Institute
* World Future Council (Germany)
See also
* Accelerating change – Perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history
* Automation – Use of various control systems for operating equipment
* Dual inheritance theory, also known as Biocultural evolution – Theory of human behavior
* Cliodynamics – Mathematical modeling of historical processes
* Deficit spending
* Emerging technologies – Technologies whose development, practical applications, or both are still largely unrealized
* Futurism (Christianity) – Christian eschatological view
* Foresight (psychology) – Behavior-based backcasting & forecasting factors
* List of emerging technologies – New technologies actively in development
* Human genetic enhancement – Technologies to genetically improve human bodies
* Human overpopulation – Proposed condition wherein human numbers exceed the carrying capacity of the environment
* {{Human timeline}} – Hominin events for the last 10 million years
* Hypothetical technology – Technology that does not exist yet
* Intelligence assessment – Evaluation of sensitive state, military, commercial, or scientific information
* Inventing the Future: Postcapitalism and a World Without Work
* {{Life timeline}} – Life events since the formation of the Earth 4.54 billion years ago
* Near future in fiction – Popular chronological setting in cyberpunk and other science fiction genres
* Outline of futures studies – Overview of and topical guide to futures studies
* Planning – Regarding the activities required to achieve a desired goal (forethought)
* Post-scarcity economy – Situation in which most goods are available to all very cheaply or freely
* Post-work society – Form of society
* Sea level rise
* Technology forecasting – Predicting the future of technology
* Technological revolution – Period of rapid technological change
* Technological unemployment – Unemployment caused by technological change
* Future of Earth
* Novopangaea – Possible future supercontinent
* Amasia (continent) – Possible future supercontinent
* Aurica (supercontinent) – Possible future supercontinent
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Theory U
Change management method started by Otto Scharmer
Theory U is a change managementmethod and the title of a book by Otto Scharmer. Scharmer with colleagues at MIT conducted 150 interviews with entrepreneurs and innovators in science, business, and society and then extended the basic principles into a theory of learning and management, which he calls Theory U. The principles of Theory U are suggested to help political leaders, civil servants, and managers break through past unproductive patterns of behavior that prevent them from empathizing with their clients' perspectives and often lock them into ineffective patterns of decision-making.
The U Process of Co-sensing and Co-creating — Presencing
Some notes about theory U
Fields of attention
* Thinking (individual)
* Conversing (group)
* Structuring (institutions)
* Ecosystem coordination (global systems)
Presencing
The author of the theory U concept expresses it as a process or journey, which is also described as Presencing, as indicated in the diagram (for which there are numerous variants).
At the core of the "U" theory is presencing: sensing + presence. According to The Learning Exchange, Presencing is a journey with five movements:
We move down one side of the U (connecting us to the world that is outside of our institutional bubble) to the bottom of the U (connecting us to the world that emerges from within) and up the other side of the U (bringing forth the new into the world).
On that journey, at the bottom of the U, lies an inner gate that requires us to drop everything that isn't essential. This process of letting-go (of our old ego and self) and letting-come (our highest future possibility: our Self) establishes a subtle connection to a deeper source of knowing. The essence of presencing is that these two selves – our current self and our best future self – meet at the bottom of the U and begin to listen and resonate with each other. Once a group crosses this threshold, nothing remains the same. Individual members and the group as a whole begin to operate with a heightened level of energy and sense of future possibility. Often they then begin to function as an intentional vehicle for an emerging future.
The core elements are shown below.
1. Co-initiating common intent: Stop and listen to others and to what life calls you to do. 5. Co-evolvingthrough innovations: ecosystems that facilitate seeing and acting from the whole.
2. Co-sensing the field of change: Go to the places of most potential and listen with your mind and heart wide open. 4. Co-creatingstrategic microcosms: Prototype the new to explore the future by doing.
3. Presencing inspiration and common will: Go to the threshold and allow the inner knowing to emerge.
"Moving down the left side of the U is about opening up and dealing with the resistance of thought, emotion, and will; moving up the right side is about intentionally reintegrating the intelligence of the head, the heart, and the hand in the context of practical applications".
Leadership capacities
According to Scharmer, a value created by journeying through the "U" is to develop seven essential leadership capacities:
1. Holding the space: listen to what life calls you to do (listen to oneself, to others and make sure that there is space where people can talk)
2. Observing: Attend with your mind wide open (observe without your voice of judgment, effectively suspending past cognitive schema)
3. Sensing: Connect with your heart and facilitate the opening process (i.e. see things as interconnected wholes)
4. Presencing: Connect to the deepest source of your self and will and act from the emerging whole
5. Crystallizing: Access the power of intention (ensure a small group of key people commits itself to the purpose and outcomes of the project)
6. Prototyping: Integrating head, heart, and hand (one should act and learn by doing, avoiding the paralysis of inaction, reactive action, over-analysis, etc.)
7. Performing: Playing the "macro violin" (i.e. find the right leaders, find appropriate social technology to get a multi-stakeholder project going).
The sources of Theory U include interviews with 150 innovators and thought leaders on management and change. Particularly the work of Brian Arthur, Francisco Varela, Peter Senge, Ed Schein, Joseph Jaworski, Arawana Hayashi, Eleanor Rosch, Friedrich Glasl, Martin Buber, Rudolf Steiner and Johann Wolfgang von Goethe have been critical. Artists are represented in the project from 2001 -2010 by Andrew Campbell, whose work was given a separate index page linked to the original project site. Today, Theory U constitutes a body of leadership and management praxis drawing from a variety of sources and more than 20 years of elaboration by Scharmer and colleagues. Theory U is translated into 20 languages and is used in change processes worldwide.
Meditation teacher Arawana Hayashi has explained how she considers Theory U relevant to "the feminine principle".
Earlier work: U-procedure
The earlier work by Glasl involved a sociotechnical, Goethean and anthroposophical process involving a few or many co-workers, managers and/or policymakers. It proceeded from phenomenological diagnosis of the present state of the organisation to plans for the future. They described a process in a U formation consisting of three levels (technical and instrumental subsystem, social subsystem and cultural subsystem) and seven stages beginning with the observation of organisational phenomena, workflows, resources etc., and concluding with specific decisions about desired future processes and phenomena. The method draws on the Goethean techniques described by Rudolf Steiner, transforming observations into intuitions and judgements about the present state of the organisation and decisions about the future. The three stages represent explicitly recursive reappraisals at progressively advanced levels of reflective, creative and intuitive insight and (epistemologies), thereby enabling more radically systemic intervention and redesign. The stages are: phenomena – picture (a qualitative metaphoric visual representation) – idea (the organising idea or formative principle) – and judgement (does this fit?). The first three then are reflexively replaced by better alternatives (new idea --> new image --> new phenomena) to form the design design. Glasl published the method in Dutch (1975), German (1975, 1994) and English (1997).
Factual/phenomenal level, technical and instrumental subsystem Observation of phenomena 1. How do processes and workflows function? Instruments, resources. 7. How can processes be developed in future? What phenomena and facts will characterise the organisation of the future?
Imaginative level, social subsystem Forming a picture of how the organisation works 2. Understanding the social subsystem and how functions, roles and management are distributed. 6. What does that mean for new functions and roles? How should the organisation of the future be visioned?
Inspirational level, cultural subsystem Ideas 3. Understanding the implicit/actual values, rules and policies that shape the organisation. How and why things happen. 5. What values and guidelines do we want for the future?
4. Is this what we want?
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* Artificial Intelligence;;;+2
The Future of AI: How Artificial Intelligence Will Change the World
AI is constantly changing our world. Here are just a few ways AI will influence our lives.
Written by Mike Thomas
Image: Shutterstock
UPDATED BY
Matthew Urwin | Mar 13, 2024
REVIEWED BY
Sadrach Pierre
Innovations in the field of artificial intelligence continue to shape the future of humanity across nearly every industry. AI is already the main driver of emerging technologies like big data, robotics and IoT, and generative AI has further expanded the possibilities and popularity of AI.
According to a 2023 IBM survey, 42 percent of enterprise-scale businesses integrated AI into their operations, and 40 percent are considering AI for their organizations. In addition, 38 percent of organizations have implemented generative AI into their workflows while 42 percent are considering doing so.
With so many changes coming at such a rapid pace, here’s what shifts in AI could mean for various industries and society at large.
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The Evolution of AI
AI has come a long way since 1951, when the first documented success of an AI computer program was written by Christopher Strachey, whose checkers program completed a whole game on the Ferranti Mark I computer at the University of Manchester. Thanks to developments in machine learning and deep learning, IBM’s Deep Blue defeated chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov in 1997, and the company’s IBM Watson won Jeopardy! in 2011.
Since then, generative AI has spearheaded the latest chapter in AI’s evolution, with OpenAI releasing its first GPT models in 2018. This has culminated in OpenAI developing its GPT-4 model and ChatGPT, leading to a proliferation of AI generators that can process queries to produce relevant text, audio, images and other types of content.
AI has also been used to help sequence RNA for vaccines and model human speech, technologies that rely on model- and algorithm-based machine learning and increasingly focus on perception, reasoning and generalization.
How AI Will Impact the Future
Improved Business Automation
About 55 percent of organizations have adopted AI to varying degrees, suggesting increased automation for many businesses in the near future. With the rise of chatbotsand digital assistants, companies can rely on AI to handle simple conversations with customers and answer basic queries from employees.
AI’s ability to analyze massive amounts of data and convert its findings into convenient visual formats can also accelerate the decision-making process. Company leaders don’t have to spend time parsing through the data themselves, instead using instant insights to make informed decisions.
“If [developers] understand what the technology is capable of and they understand the domain very well, they start to make connections and say, ‘Maybe this is an AI problem, maybe that’s an AI problem,’” said Mike Mendelson, a learner experience designer for NVIDIA. “That’s more often the case than, ‘I have a specific problem I want to solve.’”
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Job Disruption
Business automation has naturally led to fears over job losses. In fact, employees believe almost one-third of their taskscould be performed by AI. Although AI has made gains in the workplace, it’s had an unequal impact on different industries and professions. For example, manual jobs like secretaries are at risk of being automated, but the demand for other jobs like machine learning specialists and information security analysts has risen.
Workers in more skilled or creative positions are more likely to have their jobs augmented by AI, rather than be replaced. Whether forcing employees to learn new tools or taking over their roles, AI is set to spur upskilling efforts at both the individual and company level.
“One of the absolute prerequisites for AI to be successful in many [areas] is that we invest tremendously in education to retrain people for new jobs,” said Klara Nahrstedt, a computer science professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign and director of the school’s Coordinated Science Laboratory.
Data Privacy Issues
Companies require large volumes of data to train the models that power generative AI tools, and this process has come under intense scrutiny. Concerns over companies collecting consumers’ personal data have led the FTC to open an investigation into whether OpenAI has negatively impacted consumers through its data collection methods after the company potentially violated European data protection laws.
In response, the Biden-Harris administration developed an AI Bill of Rights that lists data privacy as one of its core principles. Although this legislation doesn’t carry much legal weight, it reflects the growing push to prioritize data privacyand compel AI companies to be more transparent and cautious about how they compile training data.
Increased Regulation
AI could shift the perspective on certain legal questions, depending on how generative AI lawsuits unfold in 2024. For example, the issue of intellectual property has come to the forefront in light of copyright lawsuits filed against OpenAI by writers, musicians and companies like The New York Times. These lawsuits affect how the U.S. legal system interprets what is private and public property, and a loss could spell major setbacks for OpenAI and its competitors.
Ethical issues that have surfaced in connection to generative AI have placed more pressure on the U.S. government to take a stronger stance. The Biden-Harris administration has maintained its moderate position with its latest executive order, creating rough guidelines around data privacy, civil liberties, responsible AI and other aspects of AI. However, the government could lean toward stricter regulations, depending on changes in the political climate.
Climate Change Concerns
On a far grander scale, AI is poised to have a major effect on sustainability, climate change and environmental issues. Optimists can view AI as a way to make supply chains more efficient, carrying out predictive maintenance and other procedures to reduce carbon emissions.
At the same time, AI could be seen as a key culprit in climate change. The energy and resources required to create and maintain AI models could raise carbon emissions by as much as 80 percent, dealing a devastating blow to any sustainability efforts within tech. Even if AI is applied to climate-conscious technology, the costs of building and training models could leave society in a worse environmental situation than before.
What Industries Will AI Impact the Most?
There’s virtually no major industry that modern AI hasn’t already affected. Here are a few of the industries undergoing the greatest changes as a result of AI.;
AI in Manufacturing
Manufacturing has been benefiting from AI for years. With AI-enabled robotic arms and other manufacturing bots dating back to the 1960s and 1970s, the industry has adapted well to the powers of AI. These industrial robots typically work alongside humans to perform a limited range of tasks like assembly and stacking, and predictive analysis sensors keep equipment running smoothly.
AI in Healthcare
It may seem unlikely, but AI healthcare is already changing the way humans interact with medical providers. Thanks to its big data analysis capabilities, AI helps identify diseases more quickly and accurately, speed up and streamline drug discovery and even monitor patients through virtual nursing assistants.
AI in Finance
Banks, insurers and financial institutions leverage AI for a range of applications like detecting fraud, conducting audits and evaluating customers for loans. Traders have also used machine learning’s ability to assess millions of data points at once, so they can quickly gauge risk and make smart investing decisions.
AI in Education
AI in education will change the way humans of all ages learn. AI’s use of machine learning, natural language processing and facial recognition help digitize textbooks, detect plagiarism and gauge the emotions of students to help determine who’s struggling or bored. Both presently and in the future, AI tailors the experience of learning to student’s individual needs.
AI in Media
Journalism is harnessing AI too, and will continue to benefit from it. One example can be seen in The Associated Press’ use of Automated Insights, which produces thousands of earning reports stories per year. But as generative AI writing tools, such as ChatGPT, enter the market, questions about their use in journalism abound.
AI in Customer Service
Most people dread getting a robocall, but AI in customer service can provide the industry with data-driven tools that bring meaningful insights to both the customer and the provider. AI tools powering the customer service industry come in the form of chatbots and virtual assistants.
AI in Transportation
Transportation is one industry that is certainly teed up to be drastically changed by AI. Self-driving cars and AI travelplanners are just a couple of facets of how we get from point A to point B that will be influenced by AI. Even though autonomous vehicles are far from perfect, they will one day ferry us from place to place.
Sasha Luccioni discusses the real reasons why AI is dangerous. | Video: TED
Risks and Dangers of AI
Despite reshaping numerous industries in positive ways, AI still has flaws that leave room for concern. Here are a few potential risks of artificial intelligence.;
Job Losses
Between 2023 and 2028, 44 percent of workers’ skills will be disrupted. Not all workers will be affected equally — women are more likely than men to be exposed to AI in their jobs. Combine this with the fact that there is a gaping AI skills gap between men and women, and women seem much more susceptible to losing their jobs. If companies don’t have steps in place to upskill their workforces, the proliferation of AI could result in higher unemployment and decreased opportunities for those of marginalized backgrounds to break into tech.
Human Biases
The reputation of AI has been tainted with a habit of reflecting the biases of the people who train the algorithmic models. For example, facial recognition technology has been known to favor lighter-skinned individuals, discriminating against people of color with darker complexions. If researchers aren’t careful in rooting out these biases early on, AI tools could reinforce these biases in the minds of users and perpetuate social inequalities.
Deepfakes and Misinformation
The spread of deepfakes threatens to blur the lines between fiction and reality, leading the general public to question what’s real and what isn’t. And if people are unable to identify deepfakes, the impact of misinformation could be dangerous to individuals and entire countries alike. Deepfakes have been used to promote political propaganda, commit financial fraud and place students in compromising positions, among other use cases.
Data Privacy
Training AI models on public data increases the chances of data security breaches that could expose consumers’ personal information. Companies contribute to these risks by adding their own data as well. A 2024 Cisco surveyfound that 48 percent of businesses have entered non-public company information into generative AI tools and 69 percent are worried these tools could damage their intellectual property and legal rights. A single breach could expose the information of millions of consumers and leave organizations vulnerable as a result.
Automated Weapons
The use of AI in automated weapons poses a major threat to countries and their general populations. While automated weapons systems are already deadly, they also fail to discriminate between soldiers and civilians. Letting artificial intelligence fall into the wrong hands could lead to irresponsible use and the deployment of weapons that put larger groups of people at risk.
Superior Intelligence
Nightmare scenarios depict what’s known as the technological singularity, where superintelligent machines take over and permanently alter human existencethrough enslavement or eradication. Even if AI systems never reach this level, they can become more complex to the point where it’s difficult to determine how AI makes decisions at times. This can lead to a lack of transparency around how to fix algorithms when mistakes or unintended behaviors occur.
“I don’t think the methods we use currently in these areas will lead to machines that decide to kill us,” said Marc Gyongyosi, founder of Onetrack.AI. “I think that maybe five or 10 years from now, I’ll have to reevaluate that statement because we’ll have different methods available and different ways to go about these things.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the future of AI look like?
What will AI look like in 10 years?
Is AI a threat to humanity?
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The War of The Mind
The War That Will End War
H. G. Wells
https://youtu.be/3KHiQfSwWRk?si=HB_mg_riAUY5_4nd
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Ai & the Future of Storytelling: Joseph Gordon-Levitt & Yuval Noah Harari in Conversation
https://youtu.be/PM3U9qJzl1M?si=PIGYLLa3mh1uS4MB
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“All in” - Elon Musk’s BRUTALLY Honest Interview With Tacker Carlson (2024)
https://youtu.be/ZgMl662Av8o?si=qIQoyhT-3G6uxi2n
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«Часы» – песня группы «Машина Времени» из альбома «В метре». Автор текста и музыки – Андрей Макаревич. Премьера студийной версии композиции состоялась 6 ноября 2020 года. До этого произведение один раз исполнялось на автоконцерте Live & Drive 19 июля 2020 года.
Интересные факты
Представляя песню группы «Машина Времени» «Часы» в делюкс-версии альбома «В метре», Андрей Макаревич предостерег слушателей от поиска совпадений. Но тут же заметил, что, впрочем, это ни в коем разе не возбраняется.
* Бангало Билл – отсылка к песне The Beatles «The Continuing Story of Bungalow Bill» («Продолжительная история Бангало Билла») из «Белого Альбома». Кстати, в Алуште есть отель с названием Bungalow Bill Resort;
* Летчик Джао Да – вымышленный персонаж, чьим именем названа сеть музыкальных клубов в России и Черногории. Имя «летчика» обыгрывает фамилию одного из основателей сети Владимира Джао;
* Птичкин Прокоп – по всей видимости, придуманный Макаревичем поэтический образ.
Машина Времени – Часы – текст
Ба-Ба-Ба-Бангало Билл спасать народы любил,;За что народы обожали его,;Он спас народ за народом, никого не забыл,;Но позабыл спасти себя самого.;Лётчик Джао Да не унывал никогда,;Он, словно сокол, над планетой летал,;Пронзая синий туман, кружился аэроплан,;Но даже Джао Да однажды упал.
Ты можешь быть кем угодно,;Ходить, куда угодно,;Взлетать свободно без полосы,;Пить, что угодно,;Топить за что угодно –;Ровно в полночь бьют часы на башне,;В полночь бьют на башне часы!
Птичкин Прокоп был рядовой робокоп,;Обутый в латы боевой великан,;На страже мира стоял, врагов страны разгонял,;Когда его убил бумажный стакан.
Ты можешь быть кем угодно,;Ходить, куда угодно,;Взлетать свободно без полосы,;Пить, что угодно,;Топить за что угодно –;Ровно в полночь бьют часы на башне,;В полночь бьют на башне часы!
Другие песни группы
* Зона
* Стена
* Свет рождает свет
* Мы рядом
* Просыпается ветер
reproduktor net/mashina-vremeni/chasy/amp/
Машина Времени - Часы
https://youtu.be/wtlzCeoLKEs?si=o6BKfEkLSy4iPe4a
Машина Времени - Часы (первое исполнение 19.07.20, Live & Drive)
https://youtu.be/qljDUJPQRyQ?si=MIfBMQXtNE8XtHKK
…
Александр Викторович Зайцев
Тяжёлая Судьба экс-клавошника группы “Машина Времени”
https://youtu.be/P7Q69lllo9o?si=UhivXgzi0FWNA-ub
Dccclxxxv - Theory U
© Copyright: Сергей Полищук, 2024
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